Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 46-50 million and 50-54 million bins for "Project Hail Mary"'s second-weekend domestic gross nearly even at 41.5% and 44.5% implied probabilities, reflecting tight tracking estimates amid strong word-of-mouth from its record-shattering $80.6 million opening—the biggest of 2026 and Amazon MGM's best debut. Stellar critical reception (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and premium large format (PLF) dominance have fueled a modest projected drop of 38-42%, with recent Friday previews orbiting $12.9-13 million, positioning Ryan Gosling's sci-fi hit to repeat at No. 1 over opener "They Will Kill You." Key swing factors include weekend hold patterns, competition from "Hoppers" in week two, and spreading audience buzz, with final tallies Sunday.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTaquilla del segundo fin de semana del "Proyecto Ave María"
Taquilla del segundo fin de semana del "Proyecto Ave María"
46-50 millones 42%
50-54 millones 33%
>54 millones 8.9%
42-46m 2.7%
$15,027 Vol.
$15,027 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
<42m
1%
42-46m
3%
46-50 millones
42%
50-54 millones
48%
>54 millones
9%
46-50 millones 42%
50-54 millones 33%
>54 millones 8.9%
42-46m 2.7%
$15,027 Vol.
$15,027 Vol.
Mar 30, 2026
<42m
$1,312 Vol.
1%
42-46m
$5,304 Vol.
3%
46-50 millones
$4,848 Vol.
42%
50-54 millones
$1,504 Vol.
48%
>54 millones
$2,059 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 46-50 million and 50-54 million bins for "Project Hail Mary"'s second-weekend domestic gross nearly even at 41.5% and 44.5% implied probabilities, reflecting tight tracking estimates amid strong word-of-mouth from its record-shattering $80.6 million opening—the biggest of 2026 and Amazon MGM's best debut. Stellar critical reception (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and premium large format (PLF) dominance have fueled a modest projected drop of 38-42%, with recent Friday previews orbiting $12.9-13 million, positioning Ryan Gosling's sci-fi hit to repeat at No. 1 over opener "They Will Kill You." Key swing factors include weekend hold patterns, competition from "Hoppers" in week two, and spreading audience buzz, with final tallies Sunday.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volumen
$15,027Fecha de finalización
Mar 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 46-50 million and 50-54 million bins for "Project Hail Mary"'s second-weekend domestic gross nearly even at 41.5% and 44.5% implied probabilities, reflecting tight tracking estimates amid strong word-of-mouth from its record-shattering $80.6 million opening—the biggest of 2026 and Amazon MGM's best debut. Stellar critical reception (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and premium large format (PLF) dominance have fueled a modest projected drop of 38-42%, with recent Friday previews orbiting $12.9-13 million, positioning Ryan Gosling's sci-fi hit to repeat at No. 1 over opener "They Will Kill You." Key swing factors include weekend hold patterns, competition from "Hoppers" in week two, and spreading audience buzz, with final tallies Sunday.
This market will resolve according to how much "Project Hail Mary" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (March 27 - March 29) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$15,027Fecha de finalización
Mar 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 46-50 million and 50-54 million bins for "Project Hail Mary"'s second-weekend domestic gross nearly even at 41.5% and 44.5% implied probabilities, reflecting tight tracking estimates amid strong word-of-mouth from its record-shattering $80.6 million opening—the biggest of 2026 and Amazon MGM's best debut. Stellar critical reception (95% Rotten Tomatoes) and premium large format (PLF) dominance have fueled a modest projected drop of 38-42%, with recent Friday previews orbiting $12.9-13 million, positioning Ryan Gosling's sci-fi hit to repeat at No. 1 over opener "They Will Kill You." Key swing factors include weekend hold patterns, competition from "Hoppers" in week two, and spreading audience buzz, with final tallies Sunday.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes