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Clima Y Ciencia·Ciencias

Marzo de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)

Market icon
Clima Y Ciencia·Ciencias

Marzo de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)

abr 10

abr 10

1,25–1,29ºC 50.7%

1,20–1,24 ºC 35%

>1,29ºC 9.9%

1,15–1,19ºC 5%

Polymarket

$211,874 Vol.

1,25–1,29ºC 50.7%

1,20–1,24 ºC 35%

>1,29ºC 9.9%

1,15–1,19ºC 5%

Polymarket

$211,874 Vol.

<1,10ºC

$28,111 Vol.

1%

1,10–1,14ºC

$26,642 Vol.

1%

1,15–1,19ºC

$52,403 Vol.

5%

1,20–1,24 ºC

$38,260 Vol.

35%

1,25–1,29ºC

$25,394 Vol.

51%

>1,29ºC

$41,063 Vol.

10%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.25–1.29ºC above pre-industrial levels at 50.5% implied probability, driven by the ongoing dissipation of weak La Niña conditions as detailed in NOAA's March 12 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, which forecasts a 55–90% chance of ENSO-neutral through May–July. February's 1.49ºC anomaly per Copernicus—fifth-warmest on record—provides baseline context, amplified by preliminary observations of record U.S. March heatwaves and downwelling Kelvin waves signaling subsurface warming. Lower odds for >1.29ºC (8.2%) reflect La Niña's lingering cooling influence amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties; official Copernicus and NOAA March bulletins expected early April may refine this positioning.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$211,874
Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a March 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.25–1.29ºC above pre-industrial levels at 50.5% implied probability, driven by the ongoing dissipation of weak La Niña conditions as detailed in NOAA's March 12 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, which forecasts a 55–90% chance of ENSO-neutral through May–July. February's 1.49ºC anomaly per Copernicus—fifth-warmest on record—provides baseline context, amplified by preliminary observations of record U.S. March heatwaves and downwelling Kelvin waves signaling subsurface warming. Lower odds for >1.29ºC (8.2%) reflect La Niña's lingering cooling influence amid inherent reanalysis uncertainties; official Copernicus and NOAA March bulletins expected early April may refine this positioning.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$211,874
Fecha de finalización
10 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Marzo de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "1,25–1,29ºC" con 51%, seguido de "1,20–1,24 ºC" con 35%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 51¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 51% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Marzo de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" ha generado $211.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 28, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Marzo de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Marzo de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" es "1,25–1,29ºC" con 51%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 51% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "1,20–1,24 ºC" con 35%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Marzo de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.