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Política·Mercados De Predicción

¿La ley que prohíbe los mercados de predicción deportiva promulgada en 2026?

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Política·Mercados De Predicción

¿La ley que prohíbe los mercados de predicción deportiva promulgada en 2026?

Sí

11% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Sí

11% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects low expectations for a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by the lengthy legislative process ahead despite recent bipartisan action. On March 23, Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) introduced the "Prediction Markets are Gambling Act," amending the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, amid concerns over gambling circumvention. However, the bill remains at introduction stage with no committee hearings or floor votes scheduled, while CFTC's March guidance and advance notice of proposed rulemaking—comments due April 30—signal regulatory oversight rather than outright bans. State-level moves, like Massachusetts' January prohibition, have not spurred federal momentum, and industry responses including self-imposed insider trading curbs further diminish enactment prospects before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$9,357
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects low expectations for a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by the lengthy legislative process ahead despite recent bipartisan action. On March 23, Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) introduced the "Prediction Markets are Gambling Act," amending the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports event contracts or casino-style games, amid concerns over gambling circumvention. However, the bill remains at introduction stage with no committee hearings or floor votes scheduled, while CFTC's March guidance and advance notice of proposed rulemaking—comments due April 30—signal regulatory oversight rather than outright bans. State-level moves, like Massachusetts' January prohibition, have not spurred federal momentum, and industry responses including self-imposed insider trading curbs further diminish enactment prospects before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$9,357
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La ley que prohíbe los mercados de predicción deportiva promulgada en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Se promulgó en 2026 una ley que prohíbe los mercados de predicción deportiva?" con 11%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 11¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿La ley que prohíbe los mercados de predicción deportiva promulgada en 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 27, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿La ley que prohíbe los mercados de predicción deportiva promulgada en 2026?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La ley que prohíbe los mercados de predicción deportiva promulgada en 2026?" es "¿Se promulgó en 2026 una ley que prohíbe los mercados de predicción deportiva?" con 11%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La ley que prohíbe los mercados de predicción deportiva promulgada en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.