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¿Reunión diplomática de JD Vance con Irán por...?

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¿Reunión diplomática de JD Vance con Irán por...?

$123,944 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$123,944 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de marzo

$88,379 Vol.

11%

10 de abril

$35,564 Vol.

27%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance has taken a prominent role in US-Iran diplomacy, convening the first Trump administration meeting on the issue and preparing to steer peace efforts amid claims that Iran's conventional military is effectively destroyed by recent strikes, enhancing US leverage. Pakistan-mediated negotiations have advanced, with Iranian sources expressing preference for direct talks with Vance over other envoys like Steve Witkoff, and Turkish officials confirming possible multilateral summit in Islamabad this weekend potentially involving Vance, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Absent any confirmed direct diplomatic meeting to date, trader consensus prices low implied probabilities—12% Yes by March 31 and 25% by April 10—reflecting persistent mistrust, ongoing hostilities, and uncertainty over escalation versus breakthrough.[[1]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by?tid=1723514065215)[[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by)[[3]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks)[[4]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/24/pakistan-army-chief-iran-peace-talks-trump-call)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2037607176894595222)

Vice President JD Vance has taken a prominent role in US-Iran diplomacy, convening the first Trump administration meeting on the issue and preparing to steer peace efforts amid claims that Iran's conventional military is effectively destroyed by recent strikes, enhancing US leverage. Pakistan-mediated negotiations have advanced, with Iranian sources expressing preference for direct talks with Vance over other envoys like Steve Witkoff, and Turkish officials confirming possible multilateral summit in Islamabad this weekend potentially involving Vance, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Absent any confirmed direct diplomatic meeting to date, trader consensus prices low implied probabilities—12% Yes by March 31 and 25% by April 10—reflecting persistent mistrust, ongoing hostilities, and uncertainty over escalation versus breakthrough.[[1]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by?tid=1723514065215)[[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by)[[3]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks)[[4]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/24/pakistan-army-chief-iran-peace-talks-trump-call)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2037607176894595222)

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Vice President JD Vance has taken a prominent role in US-Iran diplomacy, convening the first Trump administration meeting on the issue and preparing to steer peace efforts amid claims that Iran's conventional military is effectively destroyed by recent strikes, enhancing US leverage. Pakistan-mediated negotiations have advanced, with Iranian sources expressing preference for direct talks with Vance over other envoys like Steve Witkoff, and Turkish officials confirming possible multilateral summit in Islamabad this weekend potentially involving Vance, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Absent any confirmed direct diplomatic meeting to date, trader consensus prices low implied probabilities—12% Yes by March 31 and 25% by April 10—reflecting persistent mistrust, ongoing hostilities, and uncertainty over escalation versus breakthrough.[[1]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by?tid=1723514065215)[[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by)[[3]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks)[[4]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/24/pakistan-army-chief-iran-peace-talks-trump-call)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2037607176894595222)

Vice President JD Vance has taken a prominent role in US-Iran diplomacy, convening the first Trump administration meeting on the issue and preparing to steer peace efforts amid claims that Iran's conventional military is effectively destroyed by recent strikes, enhancing US leverage. Pakistan-mediated negotiations have advanced, with Iranian sources expressing preference for direct talks with Vance over other envoys like Steve Witkoff, and Turkish officials confirming possible multilateral summit in Islamabad this weekend potentially involving Vance, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Absent any confirmed direct diplomatic meeting to date, trader consensus prices low implied probabilities—12% Yes by March 31 and 25% by April 10—reflecting persistent mistrust, ongoing hostilities, and uncertainty over escalation versus breakthrough.[[1]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by?tid=1723514065215)[[2]](https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-diplomatic-meeting-with-iran-by)[[3]](https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks)[[4]](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/24/pakistan-army-chief-iran-peace-talks-trump-call)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2037607176894595222)

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Reunión diplomática de JD Vance con Irán por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "10 de abril" con 27%, seguido de "31 de marzo" con 11%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 27¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 27% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Reunión diplomática de JD Vance con Irán por...?" ha generado $123.9K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 24, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Reunión diplomática de JD Vance con Irán por...?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Reunión diplomática de JD Vance con Irán por...?" es "10 de abril" con 27%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 27% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "31 de marzo" con 11%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Reunión diplomática de JD Vance con Irán por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.