Amid stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations, Tehran has not agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile—estimated by IAEA at nearly 10,000 kg total, including 440kg at near-weapons-grade 60% purity stored underground—despite proposing to dilute the highly enriched portion and pause activities under safeguards. A US 15-point proposal delivered March 25 demands full dismantlement, zero domestic enrichment, and immediate handover to IAEA, which Iran is reviewing but its Foreign Ministry denied direct talks on March 30. President Trump's recent signals of progress contrast with military escalation risks, including weighed options for seizure amid ongoing strikes, leaving diplomatic breakthrough uncertain ahead of potential IAEA board scrutiny.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
$46,252 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations, Tehran has not agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile—estimated by IAEA at nearly 10,000 kg total, including 440kg at near-weapons-grade 60% purity stored underground—despite proposing to dilute the highly enriched portion and pause activities under safeguards. A US 15-point proposal delivered March 25 demands full dismantlement, zero domestic enrichment, and immediate handover to IAEA, which Iran is reviewing but its Foreign Ministry denied direct talks on March 30. President Trump's recent signals of progress contrast with military escalation risks, including weighed options for seizure amid ongoing strikes, leaving diplomatic breakthrough uncertain ahead of potential IAEA board scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volumen
$46,252Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations, Tehran has not agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile—estimated by IAEA at nearly 10,000 kg total, including 440kg at near-weapons-grade 60% purity stored underground—despite proposing to dilute the highly enriched portion and pause activities under safeguards. A US 15-point proposal delivered March 25 demands full dismantlement, zero domestic enrichment, and immediate handover to IAEA, which Iran is reviewing but its Foreign Ministry denied direct talks on March 30. President Trump's recent signals of progress contrast with military escalation risks, including weighed options for seizure amid ongoing strikes, leaving diplomatic breakthrough uncertain ahead of potential IAEA board scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$46,252Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid stalled indirect US-Iran nuclear negotiations, Tehran has not agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile—estimated by IAEA at nearly 10,000 kg total, including 440kg at near-weapons-grade 60% purity stored underground—despite proposing to dilute the highly enriched portion and pause activities under safeguards. A US 15-point proposal delivered March 25 demands full dismantlement, zero domestic enrichment, and immediate handover to IAEA, which Iran is reviewing but its Foreign Ministry denied direct talks on March 30. President Trump's recent signals of progress contrast with military escalation risks, including weighed options for seizure amid ongoing strikes, leaving diplomatic breakthrough uncertain ahead of potential IAEA board scrutiny.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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