Trader consensus implies low probabilities for Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile soon—11% by April 30, 32% by June 30, and 35% by December 31—reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy amid escalating regional hostilities. The US presented a 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25 via Pakistan, demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment, and hand over stockpiles, but Tehran rejected it March 25, countering with its own terms while ramping up attacks on Israel and Gulf states. IAEA reports from February 27 detail Iran's underground storage of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, with inspectors denied access as of March 19, fueling verification doubts. February's Oman-mediated talks hinted at zero stockpiling but yielded no binding deal, leaving outcomes uncertain pending Iran's formal reply and potential Vienna follow-ups.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
NEW
$32,289 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
12%
June 30
28%
December 31
35%
$32,289 Vol.
April 30
$5,810 Vol.
12%
June 30
$4,032 Vol.
28%
December 31
$22,446 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies low probabilities for Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile soon—11% by April 30, 32% by June 30, and 35% by December 31—reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy amid escalating regional hostilities. The US presented a 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25 via Pakistan, demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment, and hand over stockpiles, but Tehran rejected it March 25, countering with its own terms while ramping up attacks on Israel and Gulf states. IAEA reports from February 27 detail Iran's underground storage of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, with inspectors denied access as of March 19, fueling verification doubts. February's Oman-mediated talks hinted at zero stockpiling but yielded no binding deal, leaving outcomes uncertain pending Iran's formal reply and potential Vienna follow-ups.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volumen
$32,289Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus implies low probabilities for Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile soon—11% by April 30, 32% by June 30, and 35% by December 31—reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy amid escalating regional hostilities. The US presented a 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25 via Pakistan, demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment, and hand over stockpiles, but Tehran rejected it March 25, countering with its own terms while ramping up attacks on Israel and Gulf states. IAEA reports from February 27 detail Iran's underground storage of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, with inspectors denied access as of March 19, fueling verification doubts. February's Oman-mediated talks hinted at zero stockpiling but yielded no binding deal, leaving outcomes uncertain pending Iran's formal reply and potential Vienna follow-ups.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$32,289Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies low probabilities for Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile soon—11% by April 30, 32% by June 30, and 35% by December 31—reflecting stalled US-Iran nuclear diplomacy amid escalating regional hostilities. The US presented a 15-point ceasefire proposal on March 25 via Pakistan, demanding Iran dismantle its nuclear program, end uranium enrichment, and hand over stockpiles, but Tehran rejected it March 25, countering with its own terms while ramping up attacks on Israel and Gulf states. IAEA reports from February 27 detail Iran's underground storage of highly enriched uranium at Isfahan, with inspectors denied access as of March 19, fueling verification doubts. February's Oman-mediated talks hinted at zero stockpiling but yielded no binding deal, leaving outcomes uncertain pending Iran's formal reply and potential Vienna follow-ups.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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