Persistent delays in SpaceX's Starship Flight 12—the first 2026 test flight featuring upgraded V3 hardware—have locked trader sentiment into low launch counts, with <5 and 5-6 outcomes trading at 36.5% and 31.5% implied probabilities, respectively, in a closely contested field. Recent static fire successes on Booster 19 and Ship 39 at the newly operational Pad 2 demonstrate hardware readiness, yet no orbital attempts have occurred by late March, highlighting production ramp-up and FAA licensing hurdles as key bottlenecks. Differentiating factors include V3's targeted 100-ton orbital payload versus prior blocks, rapid reusability goals, and Elon Musk's 25+ launch cadence ambition, but historical single-digit test rates temper expectations for breakout volume amid technical iteration risks. Flight 12's late April window remains the pivotal catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
<5 37%
5-6 29%
7-8 14%
9-10 9.3%
$347,585 Vol.
$347,585 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
37%
5-6
30%
7-8
14%
9-10
8%
11-12
5%
13-14
2%
15-16
1%
>16
5%
<5 37%
5-6 29%
7-8 14%
9-10 9.3%
$347,585 Vol.
$347,585 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$75,455 Vol.
37%
5-6
$82,854 Vol.
30%
7-8
$150,850 Vol.
14%
9-10
$0 Vol.
8%
11-12
$2,942 Vol.
5%
13-14
$3,647 Vol.
2%
15-16
$23,563 Vol.
1%
>16
$8,275 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent delays in SpaceX's Starship Flight 12—the first 2026 test flight featuring upgraded V3 hardware—have locked trader sentiment into low launch counts, with <5 and 5-6 outcomes trading at 36.5% and 31.5% implied probabilities, respectively, in a closely contested field. Recent static fire successes on Booster 19 and Ship 39 at the newly operational Pad 2 demonstrate hardware readiness, yet no orbital attempts have occurred by late March, highlighting production ramp-up and FAA licensing hurdles as key bottlenecks. Differentiating factors include V3's targeted 100-ton orbital payload versus prior blocks, rapid reusability goals, and Elon Musk's 25+ launch cadence ambition, but historical single-digit test rates temper expectations for breakout volume amid technical iteration risks. Flight 12's late April window remains the pivotal catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$347,585Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent delays in SpaceX's Starship Flight 12—the first 2026 test flight featuring upgraded V3 hardware—have locked trader sentiment into low launch counts, with <5 and 5-6 outcomes trading at 36.5% and 31.5% implied probabilities, respectively, in a closely contested field. Recent static fire successes on Booster 19 and Ship 39 at the newly operational Pad 2 demonstrate hardware readiness, yet no orbital attempts have occurred by late March, highlighting production ramp-up and FAA licensing hurdles as key bottlenecks. Differentiating factors include V3's targeted 100-ton orbital payload versus prior blocks, rapid reusability goals, and Elon Musk's 25+ launch cadence ambition, but historical single-digit test rates temper expectations for breakout volume amid technical iteration risks. Flight 12's late April window remains the pivotal catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$347,585Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent delays in SpaceX's Starship Flight 12—the first 2026 test flight featuring upgraded V3 hardware—have locked trader sentiment into low launch counts, with <5 and 5-6 outcomes trading at 36.5% and 31.5% implied probabilities, respectively, in a closely contested field. Recent static fire successes on Booster 19 and Ship 39 at the newly operational Pad 2 demonstrate hardware readiness, yet no orbital attempts have occurred by late March, highlighting production ramp-up and FAA licensing hurdles as key bottlenecks. Differentiating factors include V3's targeted 100-ton orbital payload versus prior blocks, rapid reusability goals, and Elon Musk's 25+ launch cadence ambition, but historical single-digit test rates temper expectations for breakout volume amid technical iteration risks. Flight 12's late April window remains the pivotal catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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