Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between fewer than 5 (39%) and 5-6 (38.5%) SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, reflecting rapid reusability progress amid persistent FAA regulatory bottlenecks and technical risks. Integrated Flight Test 6 on November 19 achieved a second Super Heavy booster catch but suffered an upper stage anomaly, prompting an ongoing FAA mishap investigation that could delay Flight 7. Elon Musk's ambitious 25-launch goal for 2025 signals scaling potential for Starlink deployments and Artemis missions, yet historical licensing delays—limiting 2024 to six tests—temper expectations for high cadence. Key swing factors include FAA approvals for frequent operations and flawless ship-block upgrades, with IFT-7 as the next critical milestone.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
<5 39%
5-6 39%
7-8 15%
9-10 6.3%
$340,156 Vol.
$340,156 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
39%
5-6
39%
7-8
15%
9-10
6%
11-12
5%
13-14
2%
15-16
1%
>16
3%
<5 39%
5-6 39%
7-8 15%
9-10 6.3%
$340,156 Vol.
$340,156 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$70,366 Vol.
39%
5-6
$80,522 Vol.
39%
7-8
$150,847 Vol.
15%
9-10
$0 Vol.
6%
11-12
$2,936 Vol.
5%
13-14
$3,647 Vol.
2%
15-16
$23,563 Vol.
1%
>16
$8,275 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between fewer than 5 (39%) and 5-6 (38.5%) SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, reflecting rapid reusability progress amid persistent FAA regulatory bottlenecks and technical risks. Integrated Flight Test 6 on November 19 achieved a second Super Heavy booster catch but suffered an upper stage anomaly, prompting an ongoing FAA mishap investigation that could delay Flight 7. Elon Musk's ambitious 25-launch goal for 2025 signals scaling potential for Starlink deployments and Artemis missions, yet historical licensing delays—limiting 2024 to six tests—temper expectations for high cadence. Key swing factors include FAA approvals for frequent operations and flawless ship-block upgrades, with IFT-7 as the next critical milestone.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$340,156Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between fewer than 5 (39%) and 5-6 (38.5%) SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, reflecting rapid reusability progress amid persistent FAA regulatory bottlenecks and technical risks. Integrated Flight Test 6 on November 19 achieved a second Super Heavy booster catch but suffered an upper stage anomaly, prompting an ongoing FAA mishap investigation that could delay Flight 7. Elon Musk's ambitious 25-launch goal for 2025 signals scaling potential for Starlink deployments and Artemis missions, yet historical licensing delays—limiting 2024 to six tests—temper expectations for high cadence. Key swing factors include FAA approvals for frequent operations and flawless ship-block upgrades, with IFT-7 as the next critical milestone.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$340,156Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between fewer than 5 (39%) and 5-6 (38.5%) SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, reflecting rapid reusability progress amid persistent FAA regulatory bottlenecks and technical risks. Integrated Flight Test 6 on November 19 achieved a second Super Heavy booster catch but suffered an upper stage anomaly, prompting an ongoing FAA mishap investigation that could delay Flight 7. Elon Musk's ambitious 25-launch goal for 2025 signals scaling potential for Starlink deployments and Artemis missions, yet historical licensing delays—limiting 2024 to six tests—temper expectations for high cadence. Key swing factors include FAA approvals for frequent operations and flawless ship-block upgrades, with IFT-7 as the next critical milestone.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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