Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting confirmed strikes in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Venezuela, and Nigeria through the first quarter under President Trump's second-term counterterrorism and deterrence strategy. The March 23 joint US-Israeli airstrikes across Iran—targeting nuclear sites, air defenses, and missile facilities—marked the latest escalation in the February 28-launched conflict, solidifying this count without verified spillover to additional nations like Lebanon or proxy hotspots. Leading alternatives like 9 (16%) or 8 (14%) differentiate on potential Iranian retaliation via militias prompting reprisals in Jordan or new narco-trafficking operations in Mexico or Colombia; support for 7 could consolidate if Iran negotiations advance or Houthi disruptions subside post-Ramadan, capping further deployments amid fiscal year 2026 defense constraints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?
¿Contra cuántos países diferentes llevará a cabo Estados Unidos una acción militar en 2026?
7 29.4%
9 16.1%
8 13.8%
10 10.2%
$679,005 Vol.
$679,005 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
8%
7
29%
8
14%
9
16%
10
10%
11
5%
12
2%
13
2%
14
2%
15+
5%
7 29.4%
9 16.1%
8 13.8%
10 10.2%
$679,005 Vol.
$679,005 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6
$412,127 Vol.
8%
7
$0 Vol.
29%
8
$0 Vol.
14%
9
$8,465 Vol.
16%
10
$10,095 Vol.
10%
11
$0 Vol.
5%
12
$0 Vol.
2%
13
$6,837 Vol.
2%
14
$32,870 Vol.
2%
15+
$48,768 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting confirmed strikes in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Venezuela, and Nigeria through the first quarter under President Trump's second-term counterterrorism and deterrence strategy. The March 23 joint US-Israeli airstrikes across Iran—targeting nuclear sites, air defenses, and missile facilities—marked the latest escalation in the February 28-launched conflict, solidifying this count without verified spillover to additional nations like Lebanon or proxy hotspots. Leading alternatives like 9 (16%) or 8 (14%) differentiate on potential Iranian retaliation via militias prompting reprisals in Jordan or new narco-trafficking operations in Mexico or Colombia; support for 7 could consolidate if Iran negotiations advance or Houthi disruptions subside post-Ramadan, capping further deployments amid fiscal year 2026 defense constraints.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volumen
$679,005Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting confirmed strikes in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Venezuela, and Nigeria through the first quarter under President Trump's second-term counterterrorism and deterrence strategy. The March 23 joint US-Israeli airstrikes across Iran—targeting nuclear sites, air defenses, and missile facilities—marked the latest escalation in the February 28-launched conflict, solidifying this count without verified spillover to additional nations like Lebanon or proxy hotspots. Leading alternatives like 9 (16%) or 8 (14%) differentiate on potential Iranian retaliation via militias prompting reprisals in Jordan or new narco-trafficking operations in Mexico or Colombia; support for 7 could consolidate if Iran negotiations advance or Houthi disruptions subside post-Ramadan, capping further deployments amid fiscal year 2026 defense constraints.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$679,005Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 7 countries (29%) for US military actions in 2026, reflecting confirmed strikes in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Venezuela, and Nigeria through the first quarter under President Trump's second-term counterterrorism and deterrence strategy. The March 23 joint US-Israeli airstrikes across Iran—targeting nuclear sites, air defenses, and missile facilities—marked the latest escalation in the February 28-launched conflict, solidifying this count without verified spillover to additional nations like Lebanon or proxy hotspots. Leading alternatives like 9 (16%) or 8 (14%) differentiate on potential Iranian retaliation via militias prompting reprisals in Jordan or new narco-trafficking operations in Mexico or Colombia; support for 7 could consolidate if Iran negotiations advance or Houthi disruptions subside post-Ramadan, capping further deployments amid fiscal year 2026 defense constraints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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