Trader sentiment on San Francisco's March 25 high temperature hinges on the latest NOAA and ECMWF forecasts converging around 66-69°F, with GFS ensembles showing a slight edge to 67.5°F amid clear skies and moderate solar heating. The razor-thin split between 66-67°F (33.5%) and 68-69°F (32.0%) stems from uncertainty in coastal marine layer persistence—stronger advection of cool Pacific air could cap peaks at 66-67°F, while earlier burn-off and ridge amplification might push 68-69°F. Lower odds for 70°F+ reflect historical March norms averaging 64°F and weak synoptic forcing, per NWS data, as light onshore winds temper extremes. Traders eye afternoon model updates for resolution cues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 25?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 25?
66-67°F 37%
68-69°F 31%
64-65°F 17%
70°F or higher 12.0%
$85,729 Vol.
$85,729 Vol.
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
37%
68-69°F
31%
70°F or higher
12%
66-67°F 37%
68-69°F 31%
64-65°F 17%
70°F or higher 12.0%
$85,729 Vol.
$85,729 Vol.
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
17%
66-67°F
37%
68-69°F
31%
70°F or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on San Francisco's March 25 high temperature hinges on the latest NOAA and ECMWF forecasts converging around 66-69°F, with GFS ensembles showing a slight edge to 67.5°F amid clear skies and moderate solar heating. The razor-thin split between 66-67°F (33.5%) and 68-69°F (32.0%) stems from uncertainty in coastal marine layer persistence—stronger advection of cool Pacific air could cap peaks at 66-67°F, while earlier burn-off and ridge amplification might push 68-69°F. Lower odds for 70°F+ reflect historical March norms averaging 64°F and weak synoptic forcing, per NWS data, as light onshore winds temper extremes. Traders eye afternoon model updates for resolution cues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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