Name: Verificación de hechos: ¿es ciudadano estadounidense el atacante de U-Haul en L.A.?
Start: 2026-01-12T01:39:10.455227Z
End: 2026-02-28T00:00:00Z

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On January 11, 2026, a U-Haul truck drove into a crowd in Los Angeles, during a demonstration in support of Iranian protestors. ABC7 Los Angeles reported that a man was later pulled out of the truck and taken into police custody.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that the alleged driver of the U-Haul Truck that drove into the crowd is a United States citizen by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether the driver was a U.S. citizen. If the citizenship status of the driver has not been confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Verificación de hechos: ¿es ciudadano estadounidense el atacante de U-Haul en L.A.?

On January 11, 2026, a U-Haul truck drove into a crowd in Los Angeles, during a demonstration in support of Iranian protestors. ABC7 Los Angeles reported that a man was later pulled out of the truck and taken into police custody.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the alleged driver of this U-Haul for terrorism, by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Terrorism refers to any state or federal criminal charge or sentencing enhancement that is named “terrorism” or an equivalent term (e.g. “terroristic threats” would count), that is otherwise explicitly labeled in state or federal law as charges of terrorism, or that explicitly charge the defendant with the use or attempted use of violence or terror for political intimidation or coercion.

Terrorism enhancements of base charges will qualify. Hate crime charges or enhancements, however, will not alone qualify.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿El perpetrador del ataque con U-Haul en L.A. fue acusado de terrorismo?

On January 14, 2026, widespread internet and mobile service outages affected customers of major U.S. telecommunications providers, including Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, across multiple states. You can read more about that here: reuters.com/business/media-telecom/verizons-network-down-thousands-users-us-downdetector-shows-2026-01-14.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting, that the January 14, 2026, internet and mobile service outages were caused by, originating from, directed by, or officially attributed to Iran or any Iranian proxy by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Accusations from the U.S. government that are hedged or expressed with ambiguity (e.g., "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count.

This market will resolve once official statements from the U.S. government , or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether the January 14, 2026, outages were caused by an Iranian cyberattack. If the cause of the outages has not been attributed to Iran by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Cortes de móviles/internet en EE. UU. causados por Irán?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any naturalized US citizen is denaturalized by the United States government by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Denaturalization refers to the legal process through which a naturalized citizen’s US citizenship is revoked by the federal government.

An announcement from relevant federal government sources, including but not limited to US Attorney’s Offices, relevant US district courts, the Department of Justice, or the Department of Homeland Security, within this market’s timeframe that any naturalized citizen has been or definitively will be denaturalized will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the denaturalization goes into effect or any legal challenges the denaturalization may face after announcement. Initiation of denaturalization proceedings, allegations, recommendations, or statements otherwise supporting denaturalization without announcing the denaturalization of a specific person or persons will not alone count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government and federal legal structures; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump denaturalize any citizen by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, “capture” means Khamenei is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that he is no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.

U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Capturará Estados Unidos a Jameneí antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”

U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. 

Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

¿Operación terrestre estadounidense contra cárteles en México antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Confirmará Estados Unidos que existen extraterrestres antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Tom Lee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tom Lee charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Alguien ha sido acusado de revelar información personal del comandante de la Fuerza Delta encargado de capturar a Maduro antes del 31 de marzo?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

¿Trump deportará a 750,000 o más personas en 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Iran between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Iranian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Iranian land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage.

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; the Iranian Law Enforcement Command is a branch of the Iranian Armed Forces; all sub-branches of the Artesh, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (including the Basij), and Law Enforcement Command are part of the Iranian Armed forces.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Enfrentamiento militar entre EE. UU. e Irán antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

The Afghan man Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who allegedly shot two National Guard members in Washington D.C. on November 26, is rumored to have been blackmailed into the shooting by the Taliban.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban to commit this shooting by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, blackmail refers to members of the Taliban coercing Lakanwal to commit the shooting or a similar act by threatening Lakanwal or his family/friends. General encouragement or instruction from the Taliban, without coercion, will not qualify.

This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se confirma el chantaje talibán al tirador de D.C. para el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se acusará a la IA de un delito antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Invadirá Estados Unidos a México en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally brings criminal charges against, or announces a criminal indictment of, Don Lemon between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental or court sources; however, a broad consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Se presentarán cargos penales contra Don Lemon?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Olympic snowboarder Ryan Wedding is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


¿Ryan Wedding arrestado antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

¿Ataque de Estados Unidos a México antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.

To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. 

Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.

Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.

Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Llevará a cabo Estados Unidos un ciberataque contra Irán antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against the municipality of Tehran or any target within the municipality, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market, even if it enters Tehran’s airspace and its wreckage lands in Tehran.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.


¿Israel o Estados Unidos atacarán Teherán?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that a man-made device or weapon exists that is responsible for, or capable of causing, Havana Syndrome or Havana Syndrome-like symptoms by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Confirma EE. UU. el dispositivo que causa el síndrome de La Habana para el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  

¿Estados Unidos evacúa la embajada en Bagdad antes del 31 de enero?

Hong Kong Businessman Jimmy Lai is in custody after being convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/jimmy-lai-verdict-live-hong-kong-court-rule-after-democracy-activists-landmark-2025-12-14/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Jimmy Lai será liberado antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Verificación de hechos: la captura de Maduro fue simulada?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Ilhan Omar for fraud, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Será acusada Ilhan Omar de fraude?

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting, for any alleged crime relating to the shooting, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For a “Yes” resolution, the charged individual does not need to be an active ICE officer at the time the charges are made, as long as they were the shooter in the specified event.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se cobrará al tirador de ICE antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Estados Unidos o Israel atacarán a Irán antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Aterrizaje humano en la Luna en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Adams by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Será acusado Eric Adams antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States forcibly removes Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, from power for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The United States will be considered to have forcibly removed Khamenei from power if Khamenei is detained, captured, surrenders, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran as a direct result of actions of force, including strikes, invasions, or other operations, carried out by United States government forces.

Actions of force means the use of physical force, including but not limited to kinetic military action (e.g., missiles, bombs, gunfire), ground operations or raids, special operations, invasions, or physical arrests or detentions carried out by United States government forces. Sanctions, diplomacy, or other non-physical actions will not qualify.

United States government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel. Contractors confirmed to be acting under the orders of the United States government will count.

Actions of force carried out by United States government forces must directly lead to Khamenei’s removal from power. United States actions which merely contribute to or assist in Khamenei’s removal by other forces or through peaceful means will not suffice.

Qualifying examples (would count): The United States’ 2003 invasion of Iraq, which removed Saddam Hussein from power, and 1989 invasion of Panama, which led to Manuel Noriega’s surrender to U.S. forces, would count. The United States 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, which largely toppled the Taliban government and removed the Taliban leadership from power, would also have counted. The 1983 U.S. invasion of Grenada, which removed the existing regime from power, would count.

Non-qualifying examples (would not count): The 2011 removal of Muammar Gaddafi from power in Libya, however, in which the United States Military took part in a NATO operation against the Libyan military, including qualifying actions of force, but Gaddafi was removed by Libyan anti-government forces rather than U.S. government forces, would not count. The 1994 U.S.-led intervention in Haiti, in which the military regime relinquished power through negotiated departure rather than being forcibly removed from power by United States government forces as defined above, would not count. The removal of Slobodan Milošević from power in Serbia, which occurred through domestic political processes rather than Milošević's removal by United States government forces, would not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting. 

¿Estados Unidos destituye por la fuerza a Jameneí antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se celebrarán las elecciones de mitad de período de 2026 según lo programado?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

¿Trump será sometido a un juicio político para finales de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with any alleged fake daycare facility in Minnesota, and the charged person is officially deported from the United States by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of a person from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Será deportado antes del 31 de marzo alguien acusado de fraude en guarderías en MN?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Trump suspende la entrada a EE. UU. para más países hasta el 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Jerome Powell será acusado federalmente antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Estados Unidos reconoce a Reza Pahlavi como líder de Irán en 2026?

This market will resolve to "US" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before Israel does.

If Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before the United States does, this market will resolve to "Israel". 

If no qualifying strike occurs by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, strikes occur simultaneously, there is ambiguity about the order of strikes, or no consensus can be reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Verificación de hechos: ¿es ciudadano estadounidense el atacante de U-Haul en L.A.?

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Verificación de hechos: ¿es ciudadano estadounidense el atacante de U-Haul en L.A.?

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Verificación de hechos: ¿es ciudadano estadounidense el atacante de U-Haul en L.A.?

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Verificación de hechos: ¿es ciudadano estadounidense el atacante de U-Haul en L.A.?

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