Russian forces have not captured any territory in Dovha Balka, a village southwest of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War's March 31, 2026, assessment, which serves as the key resolution source for related prediction markets. Artillery from Russian units like the 238th Artillery Brigade continues striking Ukrainian positions in Dovha Balka, Illinivka, and Stepanivka, but probing assaults south of Druzhkivka toward the village on March 28-29 yielded no confirmed advances amid Ukrainian counterattacks and overall slowed Russian momentum—averaging just 5.5 square kilometers per day gained in early 2026 versus higher rates last year. Traders' low implied probability for entry reflects these stalled offensives in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sector, with no major escalations or reinforcements reported; upcoming weather or Ukrainian reinforcements could further impact dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird Russland bis... in Dovha Balka einmarschieren?
Wird Russland bis... in Dovha Balka einmarschieren?
$14,460 Vol.
31. März 2026
31. März
<1%
30. April
30%
$14,460 Vol.
31. März
$13,412 Vol.
<1%
30. April
$1,048 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.48905979884506° N, 37.60464316125542° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have not captured any territory in Dovha Balka, a village southwest of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War's March 31, 2026, assessment, which serves as the key resolution source for related prediction markets. Artillery from Russian units like the 238th Artillery Brigade continues striking Ukrainian positions in Dovha Balka, Illinivka, and Stepanivka, but probing assaults south of Druzhkivka toward the village on March 28-29 yielded no confirmed advances amid Ukrainian counterattacks and overall slowed Russian momentum—averaging just 5.5 square kilometers per day gained in early 2026 versus higher rates last year. Traders' low implied probability for entry reflects these stalled offensives in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sector, with no major escalations or reinforcements reported; upcoming weather or Ukrainian reinforcements could further impact dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.48905979884506° N, 37.60464316125542° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
Volumen
$14,460Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.48905979884506° N, 37.60464316125542° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have not captured any territory in Dovha Balka, a village southwest of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War's March 31, 2026, assessment, which serves as the key resolution source for related prediction markets. Artillery from Russian units like the 238th Artillery Brigade continues striking Ukrainian positions in Dovha Balka, Illinivka, and Stepanivka, but probing assaults south of Druzhkivka toward the village on March 28-29 yielded no confirmed advances amid Ukrainian counterattacks and overall slowed Russian momentum—averaging just 5.5 square kilometers per day gained in early 2026 versus higher rates last year. Traders' low implied probability for entry reflects these stalled offensives in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sector, with no major escalations or reinforcements reported; upcoming weather or Ukrainian reinforcements could further impact dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.48905979884506° N, 37.60464316125542° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volumen
$14,460Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have not captured any territory in Dovha Balka, a village southwest of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War's March 31, 2026, assessment, which serves as the key resolution source for related prediction markets. Artillery from Russian units like the 238th Artillery Brigade continues striking Ukrainian positions in Dovha Balka, Illinivka, and Stepanivka, but probing assaults south of Druzhkivka toward the village on March 28-29 yielded no confirmed advances amid Ukrainian counterattacks and overall slowed Russian momentum—averaging just 5.5 square kilometers per day gained in early 2026 versus higher rates last year. Traders' low implied probability for entry reflects these stalled offensives in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka sector, with no major escalations or reinforcements reported; upcoming weather or Ukrainian reinforcements could further impact dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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