**Recent political developments have reinforced trader expectations that Alberta will not vote for independence in 2026.** On May 21, 2026, Premier Danielle Smith announced an October 19 referendum asking voters whether Alberta should remain in Canada or authorize the government to begin the constitutional process for a later binding separation vote. This followed a May 13 court ruling that blocked a citizen-initiated petition for a direct independence referendum, citing inadequate consultation with First Nations and potential violations of treaty rights. Multiple polls conducted in late May and early June 2026 show decisive opposition to proceeding toward separation. Ipsos found 72% favoring remaining in Canada versus 19% supporting the process for a binding referendum. Similar results from Leger (68% remain) and Angus Reid (60% remain) indicate limited separatist momentum. Support for independence has declined from roughly 28% earlier in 2026 amid concerns over economic impacts, constitutional barriers, and national unity. Smith has stated she will campaign for the pro-Canada position while respecting the outcome. The referendum structure itself limits immediate independence, as even a “yes” result would only trigger further legal and procedural steps rather than secession. These factors—low and declining polling support, institutional hurdles, and the two-stage process—underpin the 86% probability traders assign to “No.”