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Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?

AfD 100.0%

CDU/CSU <1%

SPD <1%

Greens <1%

Polymarket

$16,481,672 Vol.

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Union (Unionsparteien) or CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins the second most seats of any party in the Bundestag (Germany's lower house) as a result of the next German parliamentary election.

If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the final total number of seats won by each party, including any overhang mandates (Überhangmandate) and balancing mandates (Ausgleichsmandate), as reflected in the official results.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).

Note: The CDU and CSU will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market.
Volumen
$16,481,672
Enddatum
Feb 23, 2025
Erstellt am
Dec 18, 2024, 12:11 PM ET
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Union (Unionsparteien) or CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins the second most seats of any party in the Bundestag (Germany's lower house) as a result of the next German parliamentary election. If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the final total number of seats won by each party, including any overhang mandates (Überhangmandate) and balancing mandates (Ausgleichsmandate), as reflected in the official results. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/). Note: The CDU and CSU will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "AfD" at 100%, followed by "CDU/CSU" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?" has generated $16.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?" is "AfD" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "CDU/CSU" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Market icon

Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?

AfD 100.0%

CDU/CSU <1%

SPD <1%

Greens <1%

Polymarket

$16,481,672 Vol.

Market icon

CDU/CSU

$1,444,184 Vol.

No

Market icon

SPD

$1,422,186 Vol.

No

Market icon

Greens

$1,486,040 Vol.

No

Market icon

BSW

$8,068,149 Vol.

No

Market icon

Other

$2,551,038 Vol.

No

Market icon

AfD

$1,510,074 Vol.

Yes

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "AfD" at 100%, followed by "CDU/CSU" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?" has generated $16.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?" is "AfD" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "CDU/CSU" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which Party wins 2nd most seats in German election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.