Incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse's December 2025 retirement opened Washington's 4th Congressional District—an R+11 Cook PVI seat historically dominated by Republicans, with Trump carrying it by over 20 points in recent cycles—prompting a crowded GOP primary field that includes state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney. Democrat John Duresky emerged as the leading announced challenger in January 2026, but an early March primary poll showed him at 25% amid GOP vote fragmentation in the top-two primary system. Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 83.5%, reflecting the district's entrenched GOP base rates and weak Democratic performance history, ahead of May filing deadlines and the August 4 primary.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWA-04 Wahlsieger
WA-04 Wahlsieger
$19,645 Vol.
$19,645 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
84%
Demokratische Partei
17%
$19,645 Vol.
$19,645 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republikanische Partei
$10,528 Vol.
84%
Demokratische Partei
$9,117 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse's December 2025 retirement opened Washington's 4th Congressional District—an R+11 Cook PVI seat historically dominated by Republicans, with Trump carrying it by over 20 points in recent cycles—prompting a crowded GOP primary field that includes state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney. Democrat John Duresky emerged as the leading announced challenger in January 2026, but an early March primary poll showed him at 25% amid GOP vote fragmentation in the top-two primary system. Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 83.5%, reflecting the district's entrenched GOP base rates and weak Democratic performance history, ahead of May filing deadlines and the August 4 primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$19,645Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse's December 2025 retirement opened Washington's 4th Congressional District—an R+11 Cook PVI seat historically dominated by Republicans, with Trump carrying it by over 20 points in recent cycles—prompting a crowded GOP primary field that includes state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney. Democrat John Duresky emerged as the leading announced challenger in January 2026, but an early March primary poll showed him at 25% amid GOP vote fragmentation in the top-two primary system. Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 83.5%, reflecting the district's entrenched GOP base rates and weak Democratic performance history, ahead of May filing deadlines and the August 4 primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$19,645Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Dan Newhouse's December 2025 retirement opened Washington's 4th Congressional District—an R+11 Cook PVI seat historically dominated by Republicans, with Trump carrying it by over 20 points in recent cycles—prompting a crowded GOP primary field that includes state Sen. Matt Boehnke and Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney. Democrat John Duresky emerged as the leading announced challenger in January 2026, but an early March primary poll showed him at 25% amid GOP vote fragmentation in the top-two primary system. Trader consensus prices Republican victory at 83.5%, reflecting the district's entrenched GOP base rates and weak Democratic performance history, ahead of May filing deadlines and the August 4 primary.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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