US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 73%
February 6 2.3%
February 13 2.1%
February 28 2.1%
$5,089,552 Vol.
$5,089,552 Vol.
February 1
$889,733 Vol.
<1%
February 1
$889,733 Vol.
<1%
February 2
$390,818 Vol.
<1%
February 2
$390,818 Vol.
<1%
February 3
$282,217 Vol.
<1%
February 3
$282,217 Vol.
<1%
February 4
$194,834 Vol.
1%
February 4
$194,834 Vol.
1%
February 5
$155,402 Vol.
1%
February 5
$155,402 Vol.
1%
February 6
$166,316 Vol.
2%
February 6
$166,316 Vol.
2%
February 7
$122,533 Vol.
2%
February 7
$122,533 Vol.
2%
February 8
$135,919 Vol.
1%
February 8
$135,919 Vol.
1%
February 9
$116,500 Vol.
1%
February 9
$116,500 Vol.
1%
February 10
$109,935 Vol.
1%
February 10
$109,935 Vol.
1%
February 11
$110,595 Vol.
1%
February 11
$110,595 Vol.
1%
February 12
$94,053 Vol.
1%
February 12
$94,053 Vol.
1%
February 13
$147,011 Vol.
2%
February 13
$147,011 Vol.
2%
February 14
$106,178 Vol.
2%
February 14
$106,178 Vol.
2%
February 15
$117,806 Vol.
1%
February 15
$117,806 Vol.
1%
February 16
$105,004 Vol.
1%
February 16
$105,004 Vol.
1%
February 17
$119,905 Vol.
1%
February 17
$119,905 Vol.
1%
February 18
$114,730 Vol.
1%
February 18
$114,730 Vol.
1%
February 19
$119,624 Vol.
1%
February 19
$119,624 Vol.
1%
February 20
$94,589 Vol.
1%
February 20
$94,589 Vol.
1%
February 21
$97,066 Vol.
1%
February 21
$97,066 Vol.
1%
February 22
$112,954 Vol.
1%
February 22
$112,954 Vol.
1%
February 23
$114,851 Vol.
1%
February 23
$114,851 Vol.
1%
February 24
$121,969 Vol.
1%
February 24
$121,969 Vol.
1%
February 25
$120,573 Vol.
1%
February 25
$120,573 Vol.
1%
February 26
$142,686 Vol.
1%
February 26
$142,686 Vol.
1%
February 27
$120,961 Vol.
2%
February 27
$120,961 Vol.
2%
February 28
$130,844 Vol.
2%
February 28
$130,844 Vol.
2%
No strike by February 28
$174,533 Vol.
73%
No strike by February 28
$174,533 Vol.
73%
Regeln
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Erstellt am: Jan 27, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28 73%
February 6 2.3%
February 13 2.1%
February 28 2.1%
$5,089,552 Vol.
$5,089,552 Vol.
February 1
<1%
February 2
<1%
February 3
<1%
February 4
1%
February 5
1%
February 6
2%
February 7
2%
February 8
1%
February 9
1%
February 10
1%
February 11
1%
February 12
1%
February 13
2%
February 14
2%
February 15
1%
February 16
1%
February 17
1%
February 18
1%
February 19
1%
February 20
1%
February 21
1%
February 22
1%
February 23
1%
February 24
1%
February 25
1%
February 26
1%
February 27
2%
February 28
2%
No strike by February 28
73%
Über
Resolver
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