Liberal candidate Danielle Martin commands overwhelming trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability to win the University—Rosedale federal by-election on April 13, driven by the riding's status as a longtime Liberal stronghold vacated by former MP Chrystia Freeland in January. Projections from aggregators like PoliWave and 338Canada show her leading by over 40 points against Conservative Don Hodgson and others, bolstered by her profile as an experienced family physician and recent high-profile endorsement from Liberal leader Mark Carney amid advance polls open April 3–6. Strong party canvassing and low expected by-election turnout favor organized Liberal voters. Upsets remain possible via late-breaking scandals, legal challenges to ballots, or anomalous opposition surges, though structural advantages make these improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDanielle Martin 99.4%
Samuel Baxter 1.1%
Andy D’Andrea <1%
Don Hodgson <1%
$52,795 Vol.
$52,795 Vol.

Danielle Martin
99%

Samuel Baxter
1%

Andy D’Andrea
<1%

Don Hodgson
<1%

Imran Khan
<1%

Serena Purdy
<1%

Leslie Bory
<1%

Bill Whatcott
<1%

Andrew Massey
<1%

Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
Danielle Martin 99.4%
Samuel Baxter 1.1%
Andy D’Andrea <1%
Don Hodgson <1%
$52,795 Vol.
$52,795 Vol.

Danielle Martin
99%

Samuel Baxter
1%

Andy D’Andrea
<1%

Don Hodgson
<1%

Imran Khan
<1%

Serena Purdy
<1%

Leslie Bory
<1%

Bill Whatcott
<1%

Andrew Massey
<1%

Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Liberal candidate Danielle Martin commands overwhelming trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability to win the University—Rosedale federal by-election on April 13, driven by the riding's status as a longtime Liberal stronghold vacated by former MP Chrystia Freeland in January. Projections from aggregators like PoliWave and 338Canada show her leading by over 40 points against Conservative Don Hodgson and others, bolstered by her profile as an experienced family physician and recent high-profile endorsement from Liberal leader Mark Carney amid advance polls open April 3–6. Strong party canvassing and low expected by-election turnout favor organized Liberal voters. Upsets remain possible via late-breaking scandals, legal challenges to ballots, or anomalous opposition surges, though structural advantages make these improbable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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