Tisza Party's commanding 75.5% implied probability as popular vote winner in Hungary's next parliamentary election stems from consistent double-digit leads in recent national polls, including late-November Medián and December Závecz surveys showing Tisza at 42-45% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 26-29%. Péter Magyar's anti-corruption platform has capitalized on public discontent over high inflation, frozen EU funds, and governance scandals eroding Fidesz support since the party's third-place EU Parliament finish in June. No major shifts in the past week, but trader consensus reflects sustained momentum absent countervailing developments, with the 2026 vote using a mixed proportional and district system where list vote trends often predict outcomes. Fidesz trails amid economic pressures and no-confidence signals in coalition stability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertTisza 75%
Fidesz–KDNP 26%
Andere <1%
$103,785 Vol.
$103,785 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
26%
Tisza
75%
Andere
<1%
Tisza 75%
Fidesz–KDNP 26%
Andere <1%
$103,785 Vol.
$103,785 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz–KDNP
$58,275 Vol.
26%
Tisza
$46,103 Vol.
75%
Andere
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Tisza Party's commanding 75.5% implied probability as popular vote winner in Hungary's next parliamentary election stems from consistent double-digit leads in recent national polls, including late-November Medián and December Závecz surveys showing Tisza at 42-45% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 26-29%. Péter Magyar's anti-corruption platform has capitalized on public discontent over high inflation, frozen EU funds, and governance scandals eroding Fidesz support since the party's third-place EU Parliament finish in June. No major shifts in the past week, but trader consensus reflects sustained momentum absent countervailing developments, with the 2026 vote using a mixed proportional and district system where list vote trends often predict outcomes. Fidesz trails amid economic pressures and no-confidence signals in coalition stability.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volumen
$103,785Enddatum
Apr 12, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Tisza Party's commanding 75.5% implied probability as popular vote winner in Hungary's next parliamentary election stems from consistent double-digit leads in recent national polls, including late-November Medián and December Závecz surveys showing Tisza at 42-45% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 26-29%. Péter Magyar's anti-corruption platform has capitalized on public discontent over high inflation, frozen EU funds, and governance scandals eroding Fidesz support since the party's third-place EU Parliament finish in June. No major shifts in the past week, but trader consensus reflects sustained momentum absent countervailing developments, with the 2026 vote using a mixed proportional and district system where list vote trends often predict outcomes. Fidesz trails amid economic pressures and no-confidence signals in coalition stability.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition whose national candidate list receives the most valid national party list votes in this election.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, the Fidesz-KDNP option will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volumen
$103,785Enddatum
Apr 12, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tisza Party's commanding 75.5% implied probability as popular vote winner in Hungary's next parliamentary election stems from consistent double-digit leads in recent national polls, including late-November Medián and December Závecz surveys showing Tisza at 42-45% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 26-29%. Péter Magyar's anti-corruption platform has capitalized on public discontent over high inflation, frozen EU funds, and governance scandals eroding Fidesz support since the party's third-place EU Parliament finish in June. No major shifts in the past week, but trader consensus reflects sustained momentum absent countervailing developments, with the 2026 vote using a mixed proportional and district system where list vote trends often predict outcomes. Fidesz trails amid economic pressures and no-confidence signals in coalition stability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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