Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at 99.4% implied probability to win the University—Rosedale federal by-election on April 13, reflecting the riding's status as a longstanding Liberal stronghold in urban Toronto, where the party secured 64% of the vote in the 2025 general election amid neighborhoods like the Annex, Rosedale, and the University of Toronto campus. Martin's profile as a prominent family physician, University of Toronto professor, and health policy advocate, bolstered by Prime Minister Mark Carney's endorsement and active Liberal canvassing during advance polls opened April 3–6, has solidified her commanding position against fragmented opposition including Conservative Don Hodgson and NDP's Serena Purdy. While by-elections often see low turnout favoring incumbents, a dramatic scandal, voter abstention surge, or national crisis before election day could theoretically challenge this near-certainty, though historical precedents in safe seats suggest minimal risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDanielle Martin 99.4%
Imran Khan <1%
Don Hodgson <1%
Andy D’Andrea <1%
$52,234 Vol.
$52,234 Vol.
Danielle Martin
99%
Imran Khan
1%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
Danielle Martin 99.4%
Imran Khan <1%
Don Hodgson <1%
Andy D’Andrea <1%
$52,234 Vol.
$52,234 Vol.
Danielle Martin
99%
Imran Khan
1%
Don Hodgson
<1%
Andy D’Andrea
<1%
Serena Purdy
<1%
Samuel Baxter
<1%
Leslie Bory
<1%
Bill Whatcott
<1%
Andrew Massey
<1%
Raiden DeDominicis
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the University—Rosedale, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Liberal candidate Danielle Martin at 99.4% implied probability to win the University—Rosedale federal by-election on April 13, reflecting the riding's status as a longstanding Liberal stronghold in urban Toronto, where the party secured 64% of the vote in the 2025 general election amid neighborhoods like the Annex, Rosedale, and the University of Toronto campus. Martin's profile as a prominent family physician, University of Toronto professor, and health policy advocate, bolstered by Prime Minister Mark Carney's endorsement and active Liberal canvassing during advance polls opened April 3–6, has solidified her commanding position against fragmented opposition including Conservative Don Hodgson and NDP's Serena Purdy. While by-elections often see low turnout favoring incumbents, a dramatic scandal, voter abstention surge, or national crisis before election day could theoretically challenge this near-certainty, though historical precedents in safe seats suggest minimal risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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