Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May 26 GOP primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton following the March 3 primaries, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett to secure the nomination, positioning the general election as a competitive contest in the battleground state. Trader consensus favors Republicans at 58% implied probability, reflecting Texas's structural GOP advantages, Cornyn's fundraising edge, and historical incumbent re-election rates despite recent polls showing Talarico leading or close in early matchups. Key recent catalysts include Cornyn's March 26 endorsements from 30 Republican Texas legislators and a March 28 CPAC straw poll giving Paxton 67% among attendees, highlighting primary tensions that could influence the November 3 outcome amid shifting suburban turnout and national midterm dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$151,740 Vol.
$151,740 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republikaner
58%
Demokrat
43%
$151,740 Vol.
$151,740 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republikaner
$83,943 Vol.
58%
Demokrat
$67,796 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May 26 GOP primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton following the March 3 primaries, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett to secure the nomination, positioning the general election as a competitive contest in the battleground state. Trader consensus favors Republicans at 58% implied probability, reflecting Texas's structural GOP advantages, Cornyn's fundraising edge, and historical incumbent re-election rates despite recent polls showing Talarico leading or close in early matchups. Key recent catalysts include Cornyn's March 26 endorsements from 30 Republican Texas legislators and a March 28 CPAC straw poll giving Paxton 67% among attendees, highlighting primary tensions that could influence the November 3 outcome amid shifting suburban turnout and national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Volumen
$151,740Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May 26 GOP primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton following the March 3 primaries, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett to secure the nomination, positioning the general election as a competitive contest in the battleground state. Trader consensus favors Republicans at 58% implied probability, reflecting Texas's structural GOP advantages, Cornyn's fundraising edge, and historical incumbent re-election rates despite recent polls showing Talarico leading or close in early matchups. Key recent catalysts include Cornyn's March 26 endorsements from 30 Republican Texas legislators and a March 28 CPAC straw poll giving Paxton 67% among attendees, highlighting primary tensions that could influence the November 3 outcome amid shifting suburban turnout and national midterm dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$151,740Enddatum
Nov 3, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn advanced to a May 26 GOP primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton following the March 3 primaries, where Democrat James Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett to secure the nomination, positioning the general election as a competitive contest in the battleground state. Trader consensus favors Republicans at 58% implied probability, reflecting Texas's structural GOP advantages, Cornyn's fundraising edge, and historical incumbent re-election rates despite recent polls showing Talarico leading or close in early matchups. Key recent catalysts include Cornyn's March 26 endorsements from 30 Republican Texas legislators and a March 28 CPAC straw poll giving Paxton 67% among attendees, highlighting primary tensions that could influence the November 3 outcome amid shifting suburban turnout and national midterm dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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