Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% outcomes tied at 32.5% implied probability each, reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators amid an AI-driven semiconductor export boom. February exports surged 29% year-over-year to $67.45 billion, led by a record 161% jump in chips to $25.16 billion, bolstering higher-bucket odds, while January's unexpected 1.9% month-over-month industrial production drop and lingering construction weakness cap upside. Bank of Korea's upgraded 2026 full-year forecast to 2.0% signals recovery momentum, but Q4 2025's -0.3% quarter-over-quarter contraction lingers as a downside risk. Key swing factors include March trade data and private consumption prints ahead of the late-April preliminary GDP release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert2,0–2,4 % 31%
2,5 %+ 15%
1,0–1,4 % 11.0%
<0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
15%
0,0–0,4 %
3%
0,5–0,9 %
32%
1,0–1,4 %
11%
1,5–1,9 %
32%
2,0–2,4 %
25%
2,5 %+
14%
2,0–2,4 % 31%
2,5 %+ 15%
1,0–1,4 % 11.0%
<0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
$0 Vol.
15%
0,0–0,4 %
$0 Vol.
3%
0,5–0,9 %
$0 Vol.
32%
1,0–1,4 %
$0 Vol.
11%
1,5–1,9 %
$267 Vol.
32%
2,0–2,4 %
$0 Vol.
25%
2,5 %+
$6,175 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% outcomes tied at 32.5% implied probability each, reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators amid an AI-driven semiconductor export boom. February exports surged 29% year-over-year to $67.45 billion, led by a record 161% jump in chips to $25.16 billion, bolstering higher-bucket odds, while January's unexpected 1.9% month-over-month industrial production drop and lingering construction weakness cap upside. Bank of Korea's upgraded 2026 full-year forecast to 2.0% signals recovery momentum, but Q4 2025's -0.3% quarter-over-quarter contraction lingers as a downside risk. Key swing factors include March trade data and private consumption prints ahead of the late-April preliminary GDP release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$6,442Enddatum
Apr 23, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% outcomes tied at 32.5% implied probability each, reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators amid an AI-driven semiconductor export boom. February exports surged 29% year-over-year to $67.45 billion, led by a record 161% jump in chips to $25.16 billion, bolstering higher-bucket odds, while January's unexpected 1.9% month-over-month industrial production drop and lingering construction weakness cap upside. Bank of Korea's upgraded 2026 full-year forecast to 2.0% signals recovery momentum, but Q4 2025's -0.3% quarter-over-quarter contraction lingers as a downside risk. Key swing factors include March trade data and private consumption prints ahead of the late-April preliminary GDP release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volumen
$6,442Enddatum
Apr 23, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% outcomes tied at 32.5% implied probability each, reflecting mixed high-frequency indicators amid an AI-driven semiconductor export boom. February exports surged 29% year-over-year to $67.45 billion, led by a record 161% jump in chips to $25.16 billion, bolstering higher-bucket odds, while January's unexpected 1.9% month-over-month industrial production drop and lingering construction weakness cap upside. Bank of Korea's upgraded 2026 full-year forecast to 2.0% signals recovery momentum, but Q4 2025's -0.3% quarter-over-quarter contraction lingers as a downside risk. Key swing factors include March trade data and private consumption prints ahead of the late-April preliminary GDP release.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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