Lindsey Graham's incumbency advantage, including superior fundraising, statewide name recognition, and past primary victories, anchors his 83.5% implied probability as the South Carolina Republican Senate primary frontrunner for the June 2026 contest. Recent entrant Paul Dans, ex-Project 2025 director with Trump-aligned credentials, surged to 12% after announcing his bid on November 21, 2024, drawing early MAGA interest amid criticism of Graham's establishment ties. Pastor Mark Lynch holds 6.5% on grassroots momentum from his prior campaign launch, while Thomas Murphy trails at 0.3%. With no polls yet and 18 months remaining, traders price in historical incumbent resilience despite intra-party tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertLindsey Graham 83%
Paul Dans 12%
Mark Lynch 6.6%
Thomas Murphy <1%
$29,905 Vol.
$29,905 Vol.
Lindsey Graham
83%
Paul Dans
12%
Mark Lynch
7%
Thomas Murphy
<1%
Lindsey Graham 83%
Paul Dans 12%
Mark Lynch 6.6%
Thomas Murphy <1%
$29,905 Vol.
$29,905 Vol.
Lindsey Graham
83%
Paul Dans
12%
Mark Lynch
7%
Thomas Murphy
<1%
If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 15, 2025, 3:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lindsey Graham's incumbency advantage, including superior fundraising, statewide name recognition, and past primary victories, anchors his 83.5% implied probability as the South Carolina Republican Senate primary frontrunner for the June 2026 contest. Recent entrant Paul Dans, ex-Project 2025 director with Trump-aligned credentials, surged to 12% after announcing his bid on November 21, 2024, drawing early MAGA interest amid criticism of Graham's establishment ties. Pastor Mark Lynch holds 6.5% on grassroots momentum from his prior campaign launch, while Thomas Murphy trails at 0.3%. With no polls yet and 18 months remaining, traders price in historical incumbent resilience despite intra-party tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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