JD Vance leads trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6% implied probability, propelled by his vice presidential role and alignment with Republican base priorities after the 2024 outcome, narrowly ahead of Gavin Newsom at 16.8% as Democrats reassess leadership amid post-Harris rebuilding. Marco Rubio's 11% reflects Senate tenure and appeal in swing states like Florida. The tight clustering among top contenders highlights the open field's uncertainty three years from primaries, shaped by term limits barring Donald Trump and fragmented party dynamics. Recent weeks lack major catalysts, but 2026 midterms—with governor races in battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia—loom as pivotal tests of turnout, incumbency strength, and path-to-victory viability that could separate frontrunners.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl 2028
Gewinner der Präsidentschaftswahl 2028
JD Vance 17.6%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,429,134 Vol.
$455,429,134 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Pete Buttigieg
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Gruppenelementtitel: Ivanka Trump
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

James Talarico
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.6%
Gavin Newsom 16.8%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,429,134 Vol.
$455,429,134 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Pete Buttigieg
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Gruppenelementtitel: Ivanka Trump
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

James Talarico
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance leads trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6% implied probability, propelled by his vice presidential role and alignment with Republican base priorities after the 2024 outcome, narrowly ahead of Gavin Newsom at 16.8% as Democrats reassess leadership amid post-Harris rebuilding. Marco Rubio's 11% reflects Senate tenure and appeal in swing states like Florida. The tight clustering among top contenders highlights the open field's uncertainty three years from primaries, shaped by term limits barring Donald Trump and fragmented party dynamics. Recent weeks lack major catalysts, but 2026 midterms—with governor races in battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia—loom as pivotal tests of turnout, incumbency strength, and path-to-victory viability that could separate frontrunners.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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