Edouard Philippe's commanding 99.8% implied probability in the Le Havre mayoral election reflects his dominant first-round performance on March 15, 2026, where his Horizons-led list secured over 58% of the vote amid fragmented opposition, eliminating the need for a competitive second round scheduled for March 29. As former Prime Minister under Macron with deep local roots—having served as mayor from 2010 to 2017—Philippe benefited from strong turnout among centrist and right-leaning voters, while rivals like Charlotte Boulogne (RN) and left-wing challengers split the remaining support below 10% each. Trader consensus prices in minimal upset risk from recounts or procedural challenges, though late-breaking legal disputes or voter fraud claims could theoretically shift outcomes before official certification.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Bürgermeisterwahl in Le Havre
Gewinner der Bürgermeisterwahl in Le Havre
Edouard Philippe 99.8%
Charlotte Boulogne <1%
Franck Keller <1%
Jean-Paul Lecoq <1%
$65,648 Vol.
$65,648 Vol.

Edouard Philippe
100%

Charlotte Boulogne
<1%

Franck Keller
<1%

Jean-Paul Lecoq
<1%

Marie Le Cieux
<1%

Sophie Zarifian
<1%

Magali Cauchois
<1%
Edouard Philippe 99.8%
Charlotte Boulogne <1%
Franck Keller <1%
Jean-Paul Lecoq <1%
$65,648 Vol.
$65,648 Vol.

Edouard Philippe
100%

Charlotte Boulogne
<1%

Franck Keller
<1%

Jean-Paul Lecoq
<1%

Marie Le Cieux
<1%

Sophie Zarifian
<1%

Magali Cauchois
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Le Havre.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Markt eröffnet: Mar 3, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Edouard Philippe's commanding 99.8% implied probability in the Le Havre mayoral election reflects his dominant first-round performance on March 15, 2026, where his Horizons-led list secured over 58% of the vote amid fragmented opposition, eliminating the need for a competitive second round scheduled for March 29. As former Prime Minister under Macron with deep local roots—having served as mayor from 2010 to 2017—Philippe benefited from strong turnout among centrist and right-leaning voters, while rivals like Charlotte Boulogne (RN) and left-wing challengers split the remaining support below 10% each. Trader consensus prices in minimal upset risk from recounts or procedural challenges, though late-breaking legal disputes or voter fraud claims could theoretically shift outcomes before official certification.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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