Edouard Philippe's near-certain trader consensus as Le Havre mayoral winner stems from his entrenched incumbency advantage following a dominant 58.7% first-round victory in the 2020 municipal election, where he outpaced fragmented opposition including Jean-Paul Lecoq and Magali Cauchois. No major developments have emerged in recent months to erode his local popularity or prompt challengers like Charlotte Boulogne or Franck Keller to gain traction, reinforcing the wisdom of crowds in pricing French mayoral re-elections—incumbents succeed over 80% of the time absent scandals. Scenarios that could shift odds include a unified far-right or left challenge, personal withdrawal tied to 2027 presidential ambitions, health issues, or economic downturns impacting his center-right Horizons platform ahead of the 2026 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Bürgermeisterwahl in Le Havre
Gewinner der Bürgermeisterwahl in Le Havre
Edouard Philippe 99.8%
Charlotte Boulogne <1%
Franck Keller <1%
Jean-Paul Lecoq <1%
$65,653 Vol.
$65,653 Vol.

Edouard Philippe
100%

Charlotte Boulogne
<1%

Franck Keller
<1%

Jean-Paul Lecoq
<1%

Marie Le Cieux
<1%

Sophie Zarifian
<1%

Magali Cauchois
<1%
Edouard Philippe 99.8%
Charlotte Boulogne <1%
Franck Keller <1%
Jean-Paul Lecoq <1%
$65,653 Vol.
$65,653 Vol.

Edouard Philippe
100%

Charlotte Boulogne
<1%

Franck Keller
<1%

Jean-Paul Lecoq
<1%

Marie Le Cieux
<1%

Sophie Zarifian
<1%

Magali Cauchois
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Le Havre.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Markt eröffnet: Mar 3, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Edouard Philippe's near-certain trader consensus as Le Havre mayoral winner stems from his entrenched incumbency advantage following a dominant 58.7% first-round victory in the 2020 municipal election, where he outpaced fragmented opposition including Jean-Paul Lecoq and Magali Cauchois. No major developments have emerged in recent months to erode his local popularity or prompt challengers like Charlotte Boulogne or Franck Keller to gain traction, reinforcing the wisdom of crowds in pricing French mayoral re-elections—incumbents succeed over 80% of the time absent scandals. Scenarios that could shift odds include a unified far-right or left challenge, personal withdrawal tied to 2027 presidential ambitions, health issues, or economic downturns impacting his center-right Horizons platform ahead of the 2026 vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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