Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Balendra “Balen” Shah at 100% implied probability as Nepal's next Prime Minister, reflecting his meteoric rise as Kathmandu's independent mayor amid chronic political instability marked by frequent no-confidence votes and coalition collapses. In the past 30 days, KP Sharma Oli's UML-Nepali Congress coalition has faced internal tensions following his July displacement of Prachanda, fueling public disillusionment with establishment figures like Oli, Prachanda, Rabi Lamichhane, and Gagan Thapa. Shah's anti-corruption platform and youth appeal have driven massive rallies and social media momentum, positioning him as the reformist alternative despite lacking a parliamentary seat—potentially resolvable via by-election or party realignment. Scenarios challenging this include coalition reconciliation, snap elections bolstering incumbents, or procedural blocks in parliament.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNächster Premierminister von Nepal
Nächster Premierminister von Nepal
Balendra „Balen“ Shah 100.0%
KP Sharma Oli <1%
Madhav Kumar Nepal <1%
Rabi Lamichhane <1%
$2,153,070 Vol.
$2,153,070 Vol.

KP Sharma Oli
Nein

Madhav Kumar Nepal
Nein

Rabi Lamichhane
Nein

Gagan Kumar Thapa
Nein

Balendra „Balen“ Shah
Ja

Prachanda
Nein

Kulman Ghising
Nein

Harka Sampang
Nein

Sushila Karki
Nein
Balendra „Balen“ Shah 100.0%
KP Sharma Oli <1%
Madhav Kumar Nepal <1%
Rabi Lamichhane <1%
$2,153,070 Vol.
$2,153,070 Vol.

KP Sharma Oli
Nein

Madhav Kumar Nepal
Nein

Rabi Lamichhane
Nein

Gagan Kumar Thapa
Nein

Balendra „Balen“ Shah
Ja

Prachanda
Nein

Kulman Ghising
Nein

Harka Sampang
Nein

Sushila Karki
Nein
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 16, 2026, 11:49 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Nepal following the next parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Nepal; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Balendra “Balen” Shah at 100% implied probability as Nepal's next Prime Minister, reflecting his meteoric rise as Kathmandu's independent mayor amid chronic political instability marked by frequent no-confidence votes and coalition collapses. In the past 30 days, KP Sharma Oli's UML-Nepali Congress coalition has faced internal tensions following his July displacement of Prachanda, fueling public disillusionment with establishment figures like Oli, Prachanda, Rabi Lamichhane, and Gagan Thapa. Shah's anti-corruption platform and youth appeal have driven massive rallies and social media momentum, positioning him as the reformist alternative despite lacking a parliamentary seat—potentially resolvable via by-election or party realignment. Scenarios challenging this include coalition reconciliation, snap elections bolstering incumbents, or procedural blocks in parliament.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen