Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Colin Schmitt in New York's 18th Congressional District, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democrats at 90.5% to win on November 5. Recent polls, such as a late October Emerson College survey showing Ryan ahead 52%-42%, combined with his fundraising dominance—over $3 million cash-on-hand versus Schmitt's under $500,000—cement this positioning amid the district's D+3 partisan lean. Ryan's 2022 special election victory and strong performance among independents and suburban voters in the Hudson Valley further solidify trader confidence. Barring an October surprise like a scandal, superior GOP turnout, or national Republican wave, the race appears set for a Democratic hold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNY-18 Wahlsieger
NY-18 Wahlsieger
$30,200 Vol.
$30,200 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
91%
Republikanische Partei
9%
$30,200 Vol.
$30,200 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Demokratische Partei
$30,200 Vol.
91%
Republikanische Partei
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Colin Schmitt in New York's 18th Congressional District, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democrats at 90.5% to win on November 5. Recent polls, such as a late October Emerson College survey showing Ryan ahead 52%-42%, combined with his fundraising dominance—over $3 million cash-on-hand versus Schmitt's under $500,000—cement this positioning amid the district's D+3 partisan lean. Ryan's 2022 special election victory and strong performance among independents and suburban voters in the Hudson Valley further solidify trader confidence. Barring an October surprise like a scandal, superior GOP turnout, or national Republican wave, the race appears set for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$30,200Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Colin Schmitt in New York's 18th Congressional District, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democrats at 90.5% to win on November 5. Recent polls, such as a late October Emerson College survey showing Ryan ahead 52%-42%, combined with his fundraising dominance—over $3 million cash-on-hand versus Schmitt's under $500,000—cement this positioning amid the district's D+3 partisan lean. Ryan's 2022 special election victory and strong performance among independents and suburban voters in the Hudson Valley further solidify trader confidence. Barring an October surprise like a scandal, superior GOP turnout, or national Republican wave, the race appears set for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$30,200Enddatum
Nov 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead over Republican challenger Colin Schmitt in New York's 18th Congressional District, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democrats at 90.5% to win on November 5. Recent polls, such as a late October Emerson College survey showing Ryan ahead 52%-42%, combined with his fundraising dominance—over $3 million cash-on-hand versus Schmitt's under $500,000—cement this positioning amid the district's D+3 partisan lean. Ryan's 2022 special election victory and strong performance among independents and suburban voters in the Hudson Valley further solidify trader confidence. Barring an October surprise like a scandal, superior GOP turnout, or national Republican wave, the race appears set for a Democratic hold.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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