Trader sentiment on Miguel Díaz-Canel's potential removal as Cuban president by June 30 reflects deep uncertainty amid the island's worsening energy crisis, with nationwide blackouts persisting into 2024 and sparking sporadic protests reminiscent of 2021 unrest. No official announcements or credible reports indicate an imminent leadership change, as Díaz-Canel remains firmly in place following his 2023 re-election under the constitution's two-term limit through 2028. The 50.5% Yes probability captures a split between regime stability—bolstered by military loyalty and historical continuity from the Castro era—and risks from economic collapse, mass emigration, and U.S. sanctions. Tipping factors include escalated protests, health disclosures, or Politburo signals; absent catalysts, odds may favor continuity.