Market icon
Wahlen·Mittlerer Osten

Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon

Market icon
Wahlen·Mittlerer Osten

Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon

Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF) 14%

Arabische Sozialistische Baath-Partei im Libanon (Baath) 7.3%

Hisbollah (Hezb) 2.6%

Amal-Bewegung (Amal) 1.7%

Polymarket

$210,983 Vol.

Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF) 14%

Arabische Sozialistische Baath-Partei im Libanon (Baath) 7.3%

Hisbollah (Hezb) 2.6%

Amal-Bewegung (Amal) 1.7%

Polymarket

$210,983 Vol.

Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF)

$135,428 Vol.

14%

Arabische Sozialistische Baath-Partei im Libanon (Baath)

$2,967 Vol.

7%

Hisbollah (Hezb)

$41,200 Vol.

3%

Amal-Bewegung (Amal)

$26,786 Vol.

2%

Taqaddom-Partei

$0 Vol.

2%

Islamische Wohltätigkeitsvereinigung (ICPA)

$0 Vol.

1%

ReLebanon

$0 Vol.

1%

Würdebewegung (DM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Armenische Revolutionäre Föderation (ARF)

$4,602 Vol.

1%

Kataeb-Partei (Kataeb)

$0 Vol.

1%

Progressive Sozialistische Partei (PSP)

$0 Vol.

1%

Unabhängigkeitsbewegung (IM)

$0 Vol.

1%

Freie Patriotische Bewegung (FPM)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Union Party (UP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Marada-Bewegung (MM)

$0 Vol.

<1%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Volksnasseristische Organisation (PNO)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Sozialdemokratische Partei (Lana)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Watani-Bündnis (Watani)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Islamische Gruppe (IG)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$0 Vol.

<1%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Mada-Partei (Mada)

$0 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, due by mid-2026, amid a fragmented field reflecting deep sectarian divisions under the confessional power-sharing system. The collapse of Syria's Assad regime in early December has weakened Hezbollah's regional backing, diminishing odds for the Shia duo of Hezbollah (2.4%) and Amal Movement (1.6%), while boosting anti-Hezbollah Christian parties like LF. The November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire halted southern escalation, refocusing attention on the presidential vacancy deadlock after 12 failed parliament votes since 2022. Sunni fragmentation and emerging alliances could consolidate support, with no snap election signaled yet.

Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, due by mid-2026, amid a fragmented field reflecting deep sectarian divisions under the confessional power-sharing system. The collapse of Syria's Assad regime in early December has weakened Hezbollah's regional backing, diminishing odds for the Shia duo of Hezbollah (2.4%) and Amal Movement (1.6%), while boosting anti-Hezbollah Christian parties like LF. The November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire halted southern escalation, refocusing attention on the presidential vacancy deadlock after 12 failed parliament votes since 2022. Sunni fragmentation and emerging alliances could consolidate support, with no snap election signaled yet.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, due by mid-2026, amid a fragmented field reflecting deep sectarian divisions under the confessional power-sharing system. The collapse of Syria's Assad regime in early December has weakened Hezbollah's regional backing, diminishing odds for the Shia duo of Hezbollah (2.4%) and Amal Movement (1.6%), while boosting anti-Hezbollah Christian parties like LF. The November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire halted southern escalation, refocusing attention on the presidential vacancy deadlock after 12 failed parliament votes since 2022. Sunni fragmentation and emerging alliances could consolidate support, with no snap election signaled yet.

Trader consensus favors Lebanese Forces at 14% implied probability to win the most seats in Lebanon's next parliamentary election, due by mid-2026, amid a fragmented field reflecting deep sectarian divisions under the confessional power-sharing system. The collapse of Syria's Assad regime in early December has weakened Hezbollah's regional backing, diminishing odds for the Shia duo of Hezbollah (2.4%) and Amal Movement (1.6%), while boosting anti-Hezbollah Christian parties like LF. The November 27 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire halted southern escalation, refocusing attention on the presidential vacancy deadlock after 12 failed parliament votes since 2022. Sunni fragmentation and emerging alliances could consolidate support, with no snap election signaled yet.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 23 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF)" mit 14%, gefolgt von „Arabische Sozialistische Baath-Partei im Libanon (Baath)" mit 7%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 14¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 14% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $211K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 6, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 23 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" ist „Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF)" mit 14%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 14% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Arabische Sozialistische Baath-Partei im Libanon (Baath)" mit 7%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.