Market icon

Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?

Market icon

Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$51,779,894 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$51,779,894 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$51,779,894
Enddatum
Jun 30, 2025
Markt eröffnet
Jun 15, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$51,779,894
Enddatum
Jun 30, 2025
Markt eröffnet
Jun 15, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? " ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 100% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 100¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 100%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? " ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $51.8 million generiert, seit der Markt am Jun 15, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? " zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? " liegt bei 100% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? " definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.