Ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iranian missile production sites and leadership, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have prompted repeated Iranian ballistic missile and drone barrages against Israel, with cluster munitions reported in recent attacks on central regions like Tel Aviv. Iran-backed proxies, including Hezbollah and Houthis, have escalated multi-front assaults, such as today's Houthi missile launch toward southern Israel coordinated with Tehran. Diplomatic signals emerged yesterday, as US envoy Steve Witkoff indicated potential talks this week to halt hostilities, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned of surging US firepower absent a deal. Traders monitor proxy escalations, interception rates, and negotiation progress for shifts in direct Iran-Israel military action patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$2,128,889 Vol.
31. März 2026
March 31
98%
$2,128,889 Vol.
March 31
$32,040 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iranian missile production sites and leadership, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have prompted repeated Iranian ballistic missile and drone barrages against Israel, with cluster munitions reported in recent attacks on central regions like Tel Aviv. Iran-backed proxies, including Hezbollah and Houthis, have escalated multi-front assaults, such as today's Houthi missile launch toward southern Israel coordinated with Tehran. Diplomatic signals emerged yesterday, as US envoy Steve Witkoff indicated potential talks this week to halt hostilities, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned of surging US firepower absent a deal. Traders monitor proxy escalations, interception rates, and negotiation progress for shifts in direct Iran-Israel military action patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$2,128,889Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iranian missile production sites and leadership, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have prompted repeated Iranian ballistic missile and drone barrages against Israel, with cluster munitions reported in recent attacks on central regions like Tel Aviv. Iran-backed proxies, including Hezbollah and Houthis, have escalated multi-front assaults, such as today's Houthi missile launch toward southern Israel coordinated with Tehran. Diplomatic signals emerged yesterday, as US envoy Steve Witkoff indicated potential talks this week to halt hostilities, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned of surging US firepower absent a deal. Traders monitor proxy escalations, interception rates, and negotiation progress for shifts in direct Iran-Israel military action patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$2,128,889Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 17, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iranian missile production sites and leadership, including the February 28 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have prompted repeated Iranian ballistic missile and drone barrages against Israel, with cluster munitions reported in recent attacks on central regions like Tel Aviv. Iran-backed proxies, including Hezbollah and Houthis, have escalated multi-front assaults, such as today's Houthi missile launch toward southern Israel coordinated with Tehran. Diplomatic signals emerged yesterday, as US envoy Steve Witkoff indicated potential talks this week to halt hostilities, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned of surging US firepower absent a deal. Traders monitor proxy escalations, interception rates, and negotiation progress for shifts in direct Iran-Israel military action patterns.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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