Amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with joint strikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear and military sites, Iran has launched multiple missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions hitting residential areas near Tel Aviv as recently as March 28. Iranian proxies triggered sirens in northwestern Israel on March 31, signaling continued retaliation amid Hezbollah escalations in Lebanon. On April 1, Iran's IRGC threatened strikes on US tech firms like Apple and Google in Gulf states over Isfahan attacks, while Israel presses for US hits on Iranian energy infrastructure. Traders weigh de-escalation via Trump diplomacy against persistent airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
$26,028 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
April 1
97%
April 2
89%
April 3
89%
April 4
88%
April 5
88%
April 6
87%
April 7
84%
April 8
84%
April 9
85%
April 10
84%
$26,028 Vol.
April 1
$15,362 Vol.
97%
April 2
$4,567 Vol.
89%
April 3
$2,781 Vol.
89%
April 4
$451 Vol.
88%
April 5
$772 Vol.
88%
April 6
$125 Vol.
87%
April 7
$459 Vol.
84%
April 8
$409 Vol.
84%
April 9
$663 Vol.
85%
April 10
$441 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with joint strikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear and military sites, Iran has launched multiple missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions hitting residential areas near Tel Aviv as recently as March 28. Iranian proxies triggered sirens in northwestern Israel on March 31, signaling continued retaliation amid Hezbollah escalations in Lebanon. On April 1, Iran's IRGC threatened strikes on US tech firms like Apple and Google in Gulf states over Isfahan attacks, while Israel presses for US hits on Iranian energy infrastructure. Traders weigh de-escalation via Trump diplomacy against persistent airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volumen
$26,028Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with joint strikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear and military sites, Iran has launched multiple missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions hitting residential areas near Tel Aviv as recently as March 28. Iranian proxies triggered sirens in northwestern Israel on March 31, signaling continued retaliation amid Hezbollah escalations in Lebanon. On April 1, Iran's IRGC threatened strikes on US tech firms like Apple and Google in Gulf states over Isfahan attacks, while Israel presses for US hits on Iranian energy infrastructure. Traders weigh de-escalation via Trump diplomacy against persistent airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$26,028Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with joint strikes assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear and military sites, Iran has launched multiple missile barrages at Israel, including cluster munitions hitting residential areas near Tel Aviv as recently as March 28. Iranian proxies triggered sirens in northwestern Israel on March 31, signaling continued retaliation amid Hezbollah escalations in Lebanon. On April 1, Iran's IRGC threatened strikes on US tech firms like Apple and Google in Gulf states over Isfahan attacks, while Israel presses for US hits on Iranian energy infrastructure. Traders weigh de-escalation via Trump diplomacy against persistent airstrikes and Strait of Hormuz tensions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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