Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by Tehran's defiant stance amid stalled diplomacy and escalating nuclear activities. The IAEA's latest reports confirm Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium has grown to over 400 kg at 60% purity, with new advanced centrifuge installations at Fordow and Natanz defying UN resolutions. Recent board censure of Iran prompted vows of further expansion, while U.S.-Iran indirect talks via Oman yielded no breakthroughs on enrichment curbs as preconditions for sanctions relief. Absent scheduled summits or concessions before the deadline, markets reflect entrenched positions limiting near-term agreement prospects.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertStimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 30. April zu beenden?
Stimmt der Iran zu, die Anreicherung von Uran bis zum 30. April zu beenden?
Ja
$125,671 Vol.
$125,671 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ja
$125,671 Vol.
$125,671 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by Tehran's defiant stance amid stalled diplomacy and escalating nuclear activities. The IAEA's latest reports confirm Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium has grown to over 400 kg at 60% purity, with new advanced centrifuge installations at Fordow and Natanz defying UN resolutions. Recent board censure of Iran prompted vows of further expansion, while U.S.-Iran indirect talks via Oman yielded no breakthroughs on enrichment curbs as preconditions for sanctions relief. Absent scheduled summits or concessions before the deadline, markets reflect entrenched positions limiting near-term agreement prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ET
Volumen
$125,671Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by Tehran's defiant stance amid stalled diplomacy and escalating nuclear activities. The IAEA's latest reports confirm Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium has grown to over 400 kg at 60% purity, with new advanced centrifuge installations at Fordow and Natanz defying UN resolutions. Recent board censure of Iran prompted vows of further expansion, while U.S.-Iran indirect talks via Oman yielded no breakthroughs on enrichment curbs as preconditions for sanctions relief. Absent scheduled summits or concessions before the deadline, markets reflect entrenched positions limiting near-term agreement prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$125,671Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 6, 2026, 1:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 81.5% implied probability for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30, driven by Tehran's defiant stance amid stalled diplomacy and escalating nuclear activities. The IAEA's latest reports confirm Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium has grown to over 400 kg at 60% purity, with new advanced centrifuge installations at Fordow and Natanz defying UN resolutions. Recent board censure of Iran prompted vows of further expansion, while U.S.-Iran indirect talks via Oman yielded no breakthroughs on enrichment curbs as preconditions for sanctions relief. Absent scheduled summits or concessions before the deadline, markets reflect entrenched positions limiting near-term agreement prospects.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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