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Hong Kong Election: Geographical Constituency Seat Turnover >40%?

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Welt·Weltwahlen

Hong Kong Election: Geographical Constituency Seat Turnover >40%?

>99% Chance
Polymarket

$15,013 Vol.

>99% Chance
Polymarket

$15,013 Vol.

The 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council General Election is scheduled to be held on 7 December 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if more than 40.0% of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats (i.e., more than 8 seats) in the 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council election are won by candidates who did not hold a Geographical Constituency seat in the previous term. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, a “new” member is defined as an individual who did not serve as a legislator for any of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats in the immediately preceding Legislative Council term. Prior service in Functional Constituency or Election Committee seats will not affect eligibility to be counted as “new”. If exactly 8 of the 20 seats (40.0%) are won by new members, this market will resolve to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this election are not published by January 31, 2026,11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50 Primary resolution source: The official Hong Kong 2025 Legislative Council General Election website (https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2025/eng/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council General Election is scheduled to be held on 7 December 2025.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if more than 40.0% of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats (i.e., more than 8 seats) in the 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council election are won by candidates who did not hold a Geographical Constituency seat in the previous term. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, a “new” member is defined as an individual who did not serve as a legislator for any of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats in the immediately preceding Legislative Council term. Prior service in Functional Constituency or Election Committee seats will not affect eligibility to be counted as “new”.

If exactly 8 of the 20 seats (40.0%) are won by new members, this market will resolve to “No”.

If, for any reason, the results of this election are not published by January 31, 2026,11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50

Primary resolution source: The official Hong Kong 2025 Legislative Council General Election website (https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2025/eng/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$15,013
Enddatum
7. Dez. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 12:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council General Election is scheduled to be held on 7 December 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if more than 40.0% of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats (i.e., more than 8 seats) in the 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council election are won by candidates who did not hold a Geographical Constituency seat in the previous term. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, a “new” member is defined as an individual who did not serve as a legislator for any of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats in the immediately preceding Legislative Council term. Prior service in Functional Constituency or Election Committee seats will not affect eligibility to be counted as “new”. If exactly 8 of the 20 seats (40.0%) are won by new members, this market will resolve to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this election are not published by January 31, 2026,11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50 Primary resolution source: The official Hong Kong 2025 Legislative Council General Election website (https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2025/eng/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

The 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council General Election is scheduled to be held on 7 December 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if more than 40.0% of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats (i.e., more than 8 seats) in the 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council election are won by candidates who did not hold a Geographical Constituency seat in the previous term. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, a “new” member is defined as an individual who did not serve as a legislator for any of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats in the immediately preceding Legislative Council term. Prior service in Functional Constituency or Election Committee seats will not affect eligibility to be counted as “new”. If exactly 8 of the 20 seats (40.0%) are won by new members, this market will resolve to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this election are not published by January 31, 2026,11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50 Primary resolution source: The official Hong Kong 2025 Legislative Council General Election website (https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2025/eng/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council General Election is scheduled to be held on 7 December 2025.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if more than 40.0% of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats (i.e., more than 8 seats) in the 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council election are won by candidates who did not hold a Geographical Constituency seat in the previous term. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, a “new” member is defined as an individual who did not serve as a legislator for any of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats in the immediately preceding Legislative Council term. Prior service in Functional Constituency or Election Committee seats will not affect eligibility to be counted as “new”.

If exactly 8 of the 20 seats (40.0%) are won by new members, this market will resolve to “No”.

If, for any reason, the results of this election are not published by January 31, 2026,11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50

Primary resolution source: The official Hong Kong 2025 Legislative Council General Election website (https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2025/eng/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$15,013
Enddatum
7. Dez. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 12:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council General Election is scheduled to be held on 7 December 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if more than 40.0% of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats (i.e., more than 8 seats) in the 2025 Hong Kong Legislative Council election are won by candidates who did not hold a Geographical Constituency seat in the previous term. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, a “new” member is defined as an individual who did not serve as a legislator for any of the 20 Geographical Constituency seats in the immediately preceding Legislative Council term. Prior service in Functional Constituency or Election Committee seats will not affect eligibility to be counted as “new”. If exactly 8 of the 20 seats (40.0%) are won by new members, this market will resolve to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this election are not published by January 31, 2026,11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50 Primary resolution source: The official Hong Kong 2025 Legislative Council General Election website (https://www.elections.gov.hk/legco2025/eng/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Hong Kong Election: Geographical Constituency Seat Turnover >40%?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 100% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 100¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 100%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Hong Kong Election: Geographical Constituency Seat Turnover >40%?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $15K generiert, seit der Markt am Dec 2, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Hong Kong Election: Geographical Constituency Seat Turnover >40%?" liegt bei 100% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

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