Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest edge for Canada annual inflation 2026 landing in the 3.0-3.4% band at 44.2% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 3.5-3.9% at 38.5%, reflecting skepticism toward Bank of Canada's projections of 2.1% by year-end amid sticky core CPI measures hovering at 2.4-2.8% through August's headline 2.0% print. Persistent shelter costs and wage pressures differentiate upside risks, while potential immigration curbs and further BoC rate cuts to 3.75% could pull odds lower; competitive dynamics hinge on October 23 policy signals and November CPI data, with traders wagering real capital on deviations from consensus forecasts amid trade uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertKanada Jährliche Inflation 2026
Kanada Jährliche Inflation 2026
3,0-3,4 % 44.2%
3,5–3,9 % 38.5%
2,5–2,9 % 33%
2,0–2,4 % 16%
<1,0 %
14%
1,0–1,4 %
7%
1,5–1,9 %
13%
2,0–2,4 %
23%
2,5–2,9 %
21%
3,0-3,4 %
44%
3,5–3,9 %
38%
4,0 %+
13%
3,0-3,4 % 44.2%
3,5–3,9 % 38.5%
2,5–2,9 % 33%
2,0–2,4 % 16%
<1,0 %
14%
1,0–1,4 %
7%
1,5–1,9 %
13%
2,0–2,4 %
23%
2,5–2,9 %
21%
3,0-3,4 %
44%
3,5–3,9 %
38%
4,0 %+
13%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest edge for Canada annual inflation 2026 landing in the 3.0-3.4% band at 44.2% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 3.5-3.9% at 38.5%, reflecting skepticism toward Bank of Canada's projections of 2.1% by year-end amid sticky core CPI measures hovering at 2.4-2.8% through August's headline 2.0% print. Persistent shelter costs and wage pressures differentiate upside risks, while potential immigration curbs and further BoC rate cuts to 3.75% could pull odds lower; competitive dynamics hinge on October 23 policy signals and November CPI data, with traders wagering real capital on deviations from consensus forecasts amid trade uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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