Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of England base rate hold at 100.0% for the March 20 MPC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation pressures that have tempered cut expectations. Headline CPI eased to 2.8% in January but services inflation lingers near 5%, exceeding the 2% target, while wage growth at 5.2% signals persistent demand. Weak Q4 GDP contraction of 0.3% adds caution, as policymakers prioritize anchoring inflation amid global uncertainties like U.S. policy shifts. This positioning could unwind if February CPI (released March 19) surprises lower or labor data softens dramatically, prompting a dovish pivot toward a 25 bps cut with odds below 0.2%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEntscheidung der Bank of England im März?
Entscheidung der Bank of England im März?
Keine Änderung 100.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Erhöhung <1%
$129,865 Vol.
$129,865 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
Nein
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
Nein
Keine Änderung
Ja
Erhöhung
Nein
Keine Änderung 100.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte <1%
Erhöhung <1%
$129,865 Vol.
$129,865 Vol.
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
Nein
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
Nein
Keine Änderung
Ja
Erhöhung
Nein
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's March 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 18, 2025, 3:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's March 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a Bank of England base rate hold at 100.0% for the March 20 MPC meeting, reflecting sticky inflation pressures that have tempered cut expectations. Headline CPI eased to 2.8% in January but services inflation lingers near 5%, exceeding the 2% target, while wage growth at 5.2% signals persistent demand. Weak Q4 GDP contraction of 0.3% adds caution, as policymakers prioritize anchoring inflation amid global uncertainties like U.S. policy shifts. This positioning could unwind if February CPI (released March 19) surprises lower or labor data softens dramatically, prompting a dovish pivot toward a 25 bps cut with odds below 0.2%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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