This is a market on if presidential candidate Joe Biden will test positive for COVID-19 before November 3rd, 2020. This will be defined as Joe publicly announcing - via any medium, including social media - that he has tested positive for COVID-19, or some variation of that statement. If it is in reference to antibodies, or he doesn’t publicly acknowledge it, the market will resolve to No.
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

In the wake of the news of Trump’s contraction of the coronavirus, it is of paramount importance to the American people to have an accurate forecast of whether or not his competitor, Joe Biden, will also contract it. The implications and second order effects could drastically affect the election and the future of America.



American Voter

This market is on whether or not Airbnb will be a publicly traded company by January 1, 2021. This market will resolve to Yes if Airbnb starts publicly trading on NASDAQ or NYSE before January 1st 2021, regardless of if they list via IPO, direct listing, or some other method. If they are not listed and publicly trading on one of those 2 stock exchanges, the market will resolve to "No". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


This is a market on whether or not a new Supreme Court Justice will be both nominated and confirmed before Nov 3rd, 2020. Nominated and Confirmed, in the context of the Supreme Court, are defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appointment_and_confirmation_to_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States. If a Supreme Court Justice is Nominated but not Confirmed before the election, the market will resolve to “No”. RIP RBG. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on whether Kanye West and Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before January 1st 2021. Divorce can be defined empirically as either an official announcement direct from either Kim or Kanye, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve "Yes" if the aforementioned conditions are met and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


This market is on whether Coinbase will be a publicly traded company by January 1, 2021. This market will resolve to Yes if Coinbase starts publicly trading on NASDAQ or NYSE before January 1st 2021. Regardless of if they list via IPO or direct listing. If they are not listed and publicly trading on one of those 2 exchanges, the market will resolve to "No". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


This is a scalar market on what the USD price of Bitcoin will be on November 4th, 2020, according to Coingecko. The lower bound for this market is $5,000/BTC, and the upper bound is $15,000/BTC - you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short share price corresponds with the BTC price. The market will be settled according to Coingecko’s BTC page at roughly 12pm EST on November 4th, 2020. Long and Short shares will settle proportional to the final value, in the case of the final value being between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Share is capped at $1. Refer to calculator for share price and BTC price correlation. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


This is a market on if Donald Trump will win the 2020 US presidential election. This is not about the popular vote - it's particularly about if Trump will win the election, as defined by the electoral college system, and set to still be president come next term. Market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump receives the required number of electoral votes to win the presidency, whenever it is called. If Joe Biden or any other candidate is declared the winner of this election officially, this market will resolve to “No”. Note: If the election winner is not declared on election night, this market will not resolve until a winner is confirmed.The resolution source will be https://www.cnn.com/election/2020 CNN's 2020 Election page: Additional note: in the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/campaign-wire-election-2020) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/hub/election-2020), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


This market helps you gauge who is likely to be your President come next term. Use the signal to adapt accordingly.



American citizen?

Use this market to hedge against that risk.



Worried about the consequences to your economic wellness from a particular candidate winning?

This market is on if there will be an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) granted for a COVID-19 vaccine before November 3rd, 2020. "The Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) authority allows FDA to help strengthen the nation’s public health protections against CBRN threats by facilitating the availability and use of MCMs needed during public health emergencies." The market will resolve to "Yes" if an EUA is granted for a COVID-19 vaccine, according to this link: https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#covid19euas, before November 3rd, 2020 (election day). Even if the vaccine is not widely distributed by that date, if an EUA is granted, the market will resolve to "Yes". If no EUA is granted for a vaccine by November 3rd, 2020, the market will resolve “No”. Note, this market is only for vaccines, not general treatment. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


Use this market to find out when life will return to pre-pandemic normality.



Impacted by Coronavirus?

This is a scalar market on what the TVL metric on [Defipulse.com] (http://defipulse.com/) will be on December 31st, 2020. TVL stands for the Total Value of cryptoassets Locked as collateral in the most prominent defi protocols and applications, and is the most prolific metric in regards to tracking the growth and success of DeFi. In the past few months, the TVL has been rapidly growing, showing no signs of slowing down. This market forecasts the perceived growth of DeFi by the year's end. The lower bound of this market is $8 Billion, and upper bound is $20 Billion - the market will resolve proportionally to the bounds according to what the TVL is at 12pm EST, December 31st, 2020. Reference the calculator and Buy modal to the right to better understand how the prices of outcome shares correlates to the bounds of this scalar market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


DeFi investors can use this market to gauge the expected growth of the industry by year's end, which they can then use to make better investment decisions in the present, or to hedge against lower than anticipated growth in the sector.



Defi Investor?

This is a scalar market on what the USD price of 1 Filecoin ($FIL) will be on November 17th, 2020, at 2pm EST, according to Coingecko. The lower bound for this market is $10/FIL, and the upper bound is $50/FIL - you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short share price corresponds with the FIL price. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally in the case of the final value being between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Share is capped at $1. Refer to calculator. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


This is a market on if Drake will release a new studio album before the end of 2020. A studio album in this case can be defined as a new project on his Spotify page in the Albums section, with 8 or more songs and a release date in 2020. This market begins in October 2020, thus Dark Lane Demo Tapes does not count. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a studio album is released and is available via Spotify for streaming prior to 11:59PM EST on Dec 31, 2020. If a studio album is not released on Spotify by the aforementioned date, this market will resolve “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


This is a market on which party will win Florida in the 2020 presidential election. This market will resolve based on the information made available by the Florida Division of Elections. Official results for the General Election to be held on November 3, 2020 will be available and certified on November 17, 2020. In the event of a recount or other unforeseen delay, the market will not resolve until the final information is published and certified by the Florida Division of Elections. 

Note: Dems = Democrats and Reps = Republicans. Names were shortened for the sake of space. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a scalar market on the number of confirmed coronavirus cases there will be at the end of 2020 in the United States, according to https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. The lower bound for this market is 9 million and the upper bound is 15 million - you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short share price corresponds with number of confirmed cases. The market will be settled according to https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html at roughly 12am EST on January 1st, 2021. Long and Short shares will settle proportional to the final value, in the case of the final value being between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Share is capped at $1. Refer to calculator. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Use this market to analyze trends in the virus before they are announced. Analyze new reports and public opinions on the virus. Find out when life will return to pre-pandemic normality.


Have you been affected by COVID-19?

This is a market on which team will win the 2020 Major League Baseball world series. The World Series is the annual championship series of Major League Baseball in the United States and Canada, contested since 1903 between the champion teams of the American League and the National League. The two 2020 contenders are the Tampa Bay Rays and the Los Angeles Dodgers. This market will resolve according to the team that first wins 4 games of this 7 game series.

This is a market on if Dharma’s “Phase 1” Uniswap (UNI) governance proposal, described as “Retroactive UNI Distribution”, will pass. As of the date of market creation, 10-21-20, Dharma has announced their intention to submit a UNI governance proposal on October 23rd, 2020, for essentially airdropping UNI to users who traded on Uniswap through  applications like Dharma, prior to the UNI airdrop snapshot. “Phase 1 includes users of the application integrations”. The Phase 1 proposal can be empirically defined as a UNI governance proposal submitted in late October 2020, that encompasses airdropping UNI retroactively to users of apps that had integrated Uniswap. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this proposal is successfully passed, and “No” in any other case. This market will resolve once the 7 day voting period after the proposal is finished.

If you used Dharma to trade on Uniswap before September 1st, 2020, if this proposal passes you will be eligible for a free UNI airdrop reward! Use this market to gauge the likelihood of that happening.


Dharma user?

If you want the proposal to either go through or not, pay attention to the market, and if it’s forecasting the outcome you don’t want to happen, consider delegating your UNI elsewhere to try increase the chances.

UNI delegator?

There are too many conflicting tweets predicting the outcome of this proposal, meanwhile insiders have information asymmetry, that will likely materialize in this market. Pay attention to know the signal, and wash out the noise.

Crypto Twitter user?

This is a market on whether Hunter Biden, son of former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before December 31, 2020 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime, before December 31, 2020, this market will resolve “Yes” if he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”.

This is a market on whether BTC (bitcoin) will reach a price higher than USD $15,000 before the end of the 2020 calendar year according to coinmarketcap.com. If bitcoin reaches a price higher than $15,000 this market will be resolved to “Yes” shortly thereafter. If bitcoin does not reach a price higher than $15,000 by 11:59 PM ET Dec 31, 2020, this market will resolve to “No”.

This is a market on whether Khabib Nurmagomedov will win his UFC 254 fight against Justin Gaethje. If Khabib Nurmagomedov is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Justin Gaethje is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”.


This is a market on whether 538 will outperform The Economist in forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election. This market will be resolved by comparing the Brier score of 538 and the Economist averaged over all N=51 races. The calculation is further explained here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5503/comparing-538-and-economist-forecasts-in-2020/. This market resolves to "Yes" if the Brier score for the 51 races is lower for 538's probabilities than for The Economist's probabilities. The resolution source is based on downloading each model's "model outputs" from their respective websites at 1400 UTC 02-Nov-2020. This market will be resolved in the exact same way the aforementioned Metaculus question thread, given that the result is calculated to the satisfaction of the Market Integrity Committee.

This is a market on which team will win the 2020 league of legends world championship, taking place on October 31st, 2020. The two teams competing are SN Gaming (Suning) and Damwon. Whichever team wins the Championship will have their shares become worth $1. If the game gets postponed, this market will not be resolved until the match takes place. If for some reason neither team wins, the market will resolve with both outcome shares being worth $.50 cents. This market will resolve according to the information published at https://lolesports.com/news following the match. 

This is a market on which party will win Pennsylvania in the 2020 presidential election. This market will resolve based on the information made available by the Pennsylvania Department of State and [https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/](https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/). Official results for the General Election to be held on November 3, 2020 will be available shortly thereafter. In the event of a recount or other unforeseen delay, the market will not resolve until the final information is published and certified by the Pennsylvania Department of State.

Note: Dems = Democrats and Reps = Republicans. Names were shortened for the sake of space.

In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Addition: State markets on Polymarket (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina), as per their consistent resolution conditions, will be kept open until the results are certified by each respective state’s Secretary of State. They may be kept open for automatic recounts, in which case they will be closed once the recount is complete and the results are made public. If certifications are delayed due to litigation, the market will remain open, but once the results are certified and any automatic recount is complete, markets will not be kept open in the case of further litigation. Markets may be extended or closed at the sole discretion of the Market Integrity Committee (MIC).

Use this market to gauge the likelihood of either party winning your state in the upcoming election, and putting in perspective how important your vote could be.

Pennsylvania Resident?

This is a market on which party will win Texas in the 2020 presidential election. This market will resolve based on the information made available by the Elections Division of the Texas  Secretary of State’s Office. Official results for the General Election to be held on November 3, 2020 will be available in the following days. In the event of a recount or other unforeseen delay, the market will not resolve until the final information is published and certified by the Elections Division of the Texas Secretary of State’s Office. Note: Dems = Democrats and Reps = Republicans. Names were shortened for the sake of space. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


Texas Resident?

This is a market on which party will win North Carolina in the 2020 presidential election. This market will resolve based on the information made available by the North Carolina State Board of Elections. Official results for the General Election to be held on November 3, 2020 will be available in the following days. In the event of a recount or other unforeseen delay, the market will not resolve until the final information is published and certified by the North Carolina State Board of Elections. Note: Dems = Democrats and Reps = Republicans. Names were shortened for the sake of space. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Addition: State markets on Polymarket (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina), as per their consistent resolution conditions, will be kept open until the results are certified by each respective state’s Secretary of State. They may be kept open for automatic recounts, in which case they will be closed once the recount is complete and the results are made public. If certifications are delayed due to litigation, the market will remain open, but once the results are certified and any automatic recount is complete, markets will not be kept open in the case of further litigation. Markets may be extended or closed at the sole discretion of the Market Integrity Committee (MIC).


North Carolinian?

This is a market on which party will win Georgia in the 2020 presidential election. This market will resolve based on the information made available by the Elections Division of the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office. Official results for the General Election to be held on November 3, 2020 will be available in the following days . In the event of a recount or other unforeseen delay, the market will not resolve until the final information is published and certified by the Elections Division of the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office. Note: Dems = Democrats and Reps = Republicans. Names were shortened for the sake of space. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Addition: State markets on Polymarket (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina), as per their consistent resolution conditions, will be kept open until the results are certified by each respective state’s Secretary of State. They may be kept open for automatic recounts, in which case they will be closed once the recount is complete and the results are made public. If certifications are delayed due to litigation, the market will remain open, but once the results are certified and any automatic recount is complete, markets will not be kept open in the case of further litigation. Markets may be extended or closed at the sole discretion of the Market Integrity Committee (MIC).

Georgia Resident?

This is a market on which party will win Arizona in the 2020 presidential election. This market will resolve based on the information made available by the Elections Division of the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office. Official results for the General Election to be held on November 3, 2020 will be available in the following days. In the event of a recount or other unforeseen delay, the market will not resolve until the final information is published and certified by the Elections Division of the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office. Note: Dems = Democrats and Reps = Republicans. Names were shortened for the sake of space. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Addition: State markets on Polymarket (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina), as per their consistent resolution conditions, will be kept open until the results are certified by each respective state’s Secretary of State. They may be kept open for automatic recounts, in which case they will be closed once the recount is complete and the results are made public. If certifications are delayed due to litigation, the market will remain open, but once the results are certified and any automatic recount is complete, markets will not be kept open in the case of further litigation. Markets may be extended or closed at the sole discretion of the Market Integrity Committee (MIC).


Use this market to gauge the likelihood of either party winning your state in the upcoming election, and putting in perspective how important your vote could be.



Arizona Resident?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will tweet an announcement that he successfully won the election before November 5th, 12:01 am EST. If Trump says he “Won”, or claims definitive victory, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he claims he won before the market resolution time, but later admits to losing or informally or formally concedes before November 5th, that will overrule his previous claim of winning, and the market will resolve to “No”.  If he claims something to the effect of that it looks like he is going to win, or he should win, or *should’ve* won, the market will resolve to “No”. The Tweet must be in the form of an announcement claiming victory, not a tweet about rejecting official results and that he should be the winer. If he rejects the results as being insufficient in some way or needing a recount, but does not definitively claim he Won, in the fashion of claiming victory, the market will resolve to “No”. If the election hasn’t been called yet by resolution time, and Trump has not definitively claimed victory, the market will resolve to “No”. If Trump wins and announces it via Tweet before resolution time, the market will resolve to “Yes”. It boils down to Trump tweeting definitively that he successfully won, not that the results are wrong and he should’ve won: it must resemble a victory tweet. This tweet must come from one of his official Twitter accounts, either https://twitter.com/POTUS or
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump and does not include Retweets. We're aware this is not the most unambiguous metric to resolve the market on, however the Market Integrity Committee will resolve this market in good faith as objectively accurate as possible.

Cross reference this market with Polymarket’s “Will Trump win?” market to see the likelihood that he loses but denies the results. Which some would say puts our democracy in jeopardy.

Care about Democracy?

This is a market on whether the Associated Press twitter account, https://twitter.com/AP, will publish a tweet declaring a definitive winner of the 2020 US presidential election prior to 11:59PM EST on November 5th, 2020.

Resolution of this market will be unaffected by the aforementioned tweet later being deleted. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a tweet is published no matter the outcome of the election they declare. If no tweet is published by Nov 6th this market will resolve to “No”.

It’s super nerve-racking for Americans to continue on with their lives post-election day when they don’t know who the winner is. Use this market to gauge the likelihood that it happens before Friday, Nov 6th.


American?

If your business is profiting off of an extended election cycle, ie a news publication, you can hedge your risk that it ends sooner rather than later by buying Yes shares, as if the market resolves to No, you will be able to capitalize on the election drama for longer.

Profiting off the election cycle?

This is a market on if the Ethereum 2.0 Beacon Chain genesis event will happen successfully on December 1st, 2020, as planned contingent on the ETH deposit threshold being met in time. The ETH 2 “MIN_GENESIS_TIME” is December 1, 2020, 12pm UTC. If the genesis event doesn’t happen by December 1st, 11:59pm EST, this market will resolve to “No” - and in the unlikely scenario that it happens before November 30th, 11:59pm UTC, the market will also resolve to “No”. The threshold for the genesis event to occur on December 1st is for there to be at least 16,384 32-ETH validator deposits, 7 days prior to December 1st. If the threshold is met, and the genesis event doesn’t happen successfully before resolution time due to unforeseen circumstances, the market will still resolve to “No”. For more information, read this blog post https://blog.ethereum.org/2020/11/04/eth2-quick-update-no-19/ and the hyperlinked smart contract and documentation in it. The resolution source is specified as the official Ethereum blog, but in the case of there not being a definitive answer there, other reputable, on-chain referencing resolution sources would be considered. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the resolution of this market, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will resolve it in good faith in the most accurate way possible.


This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $20,000 at any point before January 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on November 6th, 2020. This market will resolve to "Yes" whenever BTC breaks $20,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by January 1st, 2021, it will resolve to "No". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Use this market to gauge the likelihood of a sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin, which would potentially imply a reallocation of capital int he crypto ecosystem from alternative crypto assets into Bitcoin.

Altcoin Hodler?

Use this market to gauge the likelihood of an influx of new capital into the Cryptocurrency asset class; particularly Bitcoin. To break this threshold will likely entail significant reallocation of capital from legacy markets and financial instruments into Bitcoin.

Macro Investor?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will formally concede the 2020 US Election before December 1st, 2020, 12:00am EST. Conceding can be defined as publicly admitting to losing the election and thus not being president come next term. As per Wikipedia: "In politics, a concession is the act of a losing candidate publicly yielding to a winning candidate after an election after the overall result of the vote has become clear." If Trump tweets or publicly states that he lost or concedes the US Presidential Election, and will not be President come next term, this market will resolve to "Yes". If he says something to the effect of Joe Biden winning "but...", but in the context of him still contesting results, saying he should have won and he is taking action to try and still win, this market will resolve to "No". We are aware this market may be ambiguous, however it will be resolved in good faith as accurately as possible, by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). Also this Facebook Forecast question, https://www.forecastapp.net/q/TWFya2V0Ollwd0JkSUlOdzRB/, will be referenced as a leading resolution source, along with the Associated Press.

This is a market on if LaMelo Ball will be chosen/drafted with the 1st pick of the 2020 NBA Draft, currently owned by the Minnesota Timberwolves. This market will resolve to “Yes” if he is chosen 1st, and “No” if he is not. The 2020 NBA Draft takes place on November 18th, 2020, but if for some reason it is postponed, this market will stay active until the 1st official pick of the draft is made. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on if Kanye West will release a new studio album before December 31st, 11:59pm EST. A studio album in this case can be defined as a new project on his Spotify page in the Albums section, with 8 or more songs and a release date in 2020. This market begins on November 11th, 2020, therefore any previous albums do not qualify. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a studio album is released and is available via Spotify for streaming prior to 11:59PM EST on Dec 31, 2020. If a studio album is not released on Spotify by the aforementioned date, this market will resolve “No.” The market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on if Donald Trump will attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person.
This market is based on the linked Forecast question (https://forecastapp.net/q/TWFya2V0OlJpZXFKYTBGQU5n). This market will be resolved in good faith, with the primary resolution source being the linked Forecast question above. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends the swearing-in ceremony of Joe Biden's presidential inauguration in person, according to both sources deemed appropriate by the Forecast team, or empirically by watching the inauguration on a livestream. In any case of Donald Trump not attending Joe Biden's official inauguration, the market will resolve to "No". In the case that the inauguration takes place in some form of hybrid online/in-person ceremony, if Trump is not physically present at the in-person segment of this, in the same place as Joe Biden, the market resolves to “No.” 

If, for any reason, Biden is not inaugurated, the market will resolve to "No". This includes if Trump is inaugurated instead: the market will still resolve to "No". The swearing-in ceremony is a publicly televised event and it will be abundantly clear whether or not Donald Trump is present based on the media coverage of inauguration day. Televised video coverage from various outlets will be used to verify his attendance. If no inauguration takes place before February 1st, 2021, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of any ambiguity in regards to the market resolution, it will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a scalar market on what Airbnb's market capitalization will be upon market close on its first day publicly trading, denominated in $USD and according to Google Finance. Airbnb is set to start trading soon, likely on the NASDAQ under the ticker $ABNB. The lower bound for this market is $20 billion, and the upper bound is $60 billion. You can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with Airbnb's market cap. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Airbnb's performance in the public markets will set the tone for future tech IPOs and dictate the market's sentiment towards tech businesses with real-world components that suffered from the pandemic and are looking to make a recovery. Once this price discovery happens, it may have far-reaching effects in both the public and private sector. Use this market to gauge how Airbnb's IPO is going to fare, before it happens and gets priced in market-wide.

Tech Investor?

Many Airbnb hosts depend on income generated via the site, which declined significantly in the wake up the pandemic. Use this market to gauge investor confidence in Airbnb's ability to re-channel the same demand and growth it had prior to COVID-19.

Airbnb host?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be inaugurated for his second term as President of the United States of America, on Inauguration Day—January 20th, 2021. At the time of market creation, AP, CNN, WSJ, Fox, and more have called the election for Joe Biden as the winner, and formally declared him the president-elect, however Trump vows to contest the result legally. 

Inauguration Day is the day when the newly elected President is sworn in, and takes place at the beginning of every new term, regardless of if it is a new president, or the incumbent president is entering their second term. It has taken place on January 20th every time since 1937, unless it’s been a Sunday, which it is not in 2021. In the highly unlikely event the Inauguration Day date is changed to any other day before February 1st, 2021, it will be treated as the official Inauguration Day and resolution date for this market, and the same conditions will apply. 

This market will not resolve, under any circumstances, until the resolution date—Inauguration Day. If Joe Biden, or anyone else other than Donald Trump, is inaugurated that day as President of the USA, the market will resolve to “No”. If Trump claims he is still president, but is not officially inaugurated on Inauguration Day, the market will resolve to “No”. If for any reason, Trump is not inaugurated for the next term before February 1st, 2021, the market will resolve to “No”. If he is officially inaugurated for his second term on Inauguration Day the market will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be https://www.usa.gov/presidents#item-37462 and https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/, both official government sources.

Use this market to gauge the likelihood or capitalize on your conviction in President Trump being able to successfully alter the current state and results of the election, via legal means or otherwise, before the next presidential term begins.

Don't believe the election result?

As the Trump administration purports a narrative that much of the results and voting statistics are false, use this market to accurately price the likelihood of Trump's triumph before inauguration day, and to settle disputes with devout Trump supporters.

Think Trump has no chance at overturning the results?

As the news is filled with conflicting claims and narratives, with AP and others calling the election for Biden, and the Trump administration vowing lengthy legal battles, follow this market to gauge the likelihood that Trump's narrative will be substantiated before the next term begins.

This market is on if there will be an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) granted for a COVID-19 vaccine before January 1st, 2021. “The Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) authority allows FDA to help strengthen the nation’s public health protections against CBRN threats by facilitating the availability and use of MCMs needed during public health emergencies.“

The market will resolve to “Yes“ if an EUA is granted for a COVID-19 vaccine, according to this link: [https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#covid19euas](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#covid19euas), before January 1st, 2021. Even if the vaccine is not widely distributed by that date, if an EUA is granted, the market will resolve to “Yes“. If no EUA is granted for a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1st, 2021, the market will resolve “No”. 

Note, this market is only for vaccines, not general treatment.

The market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Use this market to gauge how soon you'll be able to get back outside and around other people without having severe exposure and risk to COVID-19.

Immunocompromised?

Many say a vaccine is the definitive prerequisite to any sort of in-person activity going back to normal. Use this market to gauge when your business will be able to go back to business as usual.

Hospitality Industry?

This is a market on whether Donald Trump will win the popular vote in the 2020 general election for U.S. President in one or more of the states of Pennsylvania, Arizona or Georgia. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source, [https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6956/Will-Trump-win-any-of-Pennsylvania,-Arizona-or-Georgia](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6956/Will-Trump-win-any-of-Pennsylvania,-Arizona-or-Georgia). This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.

This is a market, done in collaboration with Superrare, on if any single piece of digital art (NFT) on [Superrare.co](https://superrare.co) will be sold, via either primary or secondary sale, for more than $100,000 (according to USD market price of ETH at time of sale displayed on Superrare), by December 31st, 11:59pm EST. The sale must be confirmed and executed on-chain and be visible on the Superrare website, where the USD price displayed must exceed $100,000. This market will resolve to “Yes” once a sale that meets these conditions occurs, and “No” if the resolution date is reached and the conditions have yet to be met. The market will be resolved according to the aforementioned conditions, in collaboration with the Superrare team.

Use this market to gauge the likelihood that this monumental achievement is reached on Superrare, which could ignite major buzz around the industry and lead to more buying activity and higher prices across the entire Superrare marketplace.

Cryptoartist?

For this milestone to be reached, it is likely that there will have been an influx of new collectors willing to spend big. Use this market to gauge the likelihood of more collector capital entering the market, and as a hedge for being priced out of buying your favorite pieces (lol).

Crypto Art Collector?

This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before January 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

Uniswap v3 is rumored to massively improve slippage and efficiency for large orders, among other things. If you are a large player in DeFi, the arrival of Uniswap v3 should afford you better opportunities as a Liquidity Provider, as well as better prices for large trades.

DeFi Whale?

While very little about Uniswap v3 is publicly available so far, rumors indicate it will be a gamechanger. If you hold UNI, you can use this market to gauge the likelihood of v3 launching in the near term, which, depending on its reception, may lead to significant price movement.

UNI holder?

This is a market on which team will win the NFL week 10 matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. This game is set to take place on November 15th, 2020 at SoFi Stadium. Whichever team wins this match will see their outcome share resolved accordingly, with winning shares being worth $1 and losing shares being worth $0. In the event this match ends in a tie, post overtime, the market will resolve at 50/50, meaning Seahawks and Rams shares will both be redeemable for $.50. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nfl.com/.

This market is on if indoor dining will be prohibited in all restaurants in NYC by any written local or state government order, at any point for any duration, before January 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST. This markets conception date is November 13th, 2020, thus any prohibitions or statements prior to today do not count. 

This market is based on the linked Forecast question (https://www.forecastapp.net/q/TWFya2V0OmY1Y0dtQU45NXpr/), and will resolve according to that source. As per the source, the market will resolve to “Yes” if indoor dining is, “prohibited at all restaurants in New York City by any written local or state government order, based on the New York City government website (https://www1.nyc.gov/), other New York State government publication, or another source deemed appropriate by the Forecast team. Otherwise, it will be marked No.”

Use this market to gauge the likelihood that you will need to halt indoor dining operations in the near future, and possibly hedge against that risk by buying “Yes” outcome tokens. Selling exclusively via takeout and delivery has notoriously poor margins, and outdoor dining will likely be infeasible as the weather gets colder. Also, NYC is likely to set a precedent for other major cities.

Restaurateur?

This is a market on whether Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine will be the first vaccine to receive regulatory approval in the USA, in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA, before any other COVID-19 vaccine.  This market will resolve when the first FDA approval or EUA for a COVID-19 vaccine occurs, and if it is for Pfizer's vaccine, this market will resolve to "Yes", while if it is for any other vaccine, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market is NOT on if Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine will be the first FDA approved or the first EUA, but rather if it will be the first vaccine to achieve regulatory approval in either form (FDA approval or EUA). If Pfizer's vaccine gets regulatory approval the same day as 1 or more other vaccines, according to EST, the market will resolve to "No", as this means their vaccine is not definitively *first*. 

This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on if Sushiswap will have more Total Value Locked (TVL) than Uniswap, at any time before November 24th, 2020, 12:00am EST. This market’s inception date is November 18th, 2020, and thus the market conditions can only be satisfied after this date. The market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any time, Sushiswap has a higher overall TVL than Uniswap, and “No” if the end date is reached without this condition being met. 

The resolution condition is being tracked with the DefiPulse API as defined as the following API endpoints (with a valid API key): 
- [https://data-api.defipulse.com/api/v1/defipulse/api/GetHistory?project=uniswap](https://data-api.defipulse.com/api/v1/defipulse/api/GetHistory?project=uniswap)
- [https://data-api.defipulse.com/api/v1/defipulse/api/GetHistory?project=sushiswap](https://data-api.defipulse.com/api/v1/defipulse/api/GetHistory?project=sushiswap)

The market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any timestamp after November 18th 2020, these feeds report Sushiswap has a higher overall TVL in USD than Uniswap, and “No” if the end date is reached without this condition being met. If, for any reason, the API feed malfunctions or is unable to report on TVL, this market will be resolved in good faith empirically on the terms that Sushiswap has a higher TVL than Uniswap at any time before the resolution date. In the case of ambiguity in terms of the outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Uniswap's UNI subsidized pools attracted billions of dollars of capital in the DeFi ecosystem, and as it leaves due to the subsidy period ending, many are speculating how the capital will be reallocated. In conjunction with the UNI subsidies ending, Sushiswap subsidies for the same pools are starting, implying that lots of capital may reallocate accordingly. Regardless, the reward profile of LPing on different AMM protocols will change drastically in the coming days, so you can use this market to reduce the ambiguity of which pools may become more dilutive and thus less lucrative.

DeFi LP

This newfound SUSHI subsidy for LPs may introduce immense sell-side pressure for the protocol token, in a similar fashion to how it did for UNI with Uniswap's subsidy period. If you're a hodler, plan accordingly.

Sushiswap hodler

This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $20,000 at any point before Thanksgiving - defined as before November 26th, 2020, 12:00am EST - according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on November 18th, 2020. This market will resolve to “Yes” whenever BTC breaks $20,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by the resolution date, it will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

If Bitcoin breaks $20k before Thanksgiving, you’ll probably spend the whole Thanksgiving dinner rambling on about your gains and how you HODL’d through the bear market. Use this market to hedge against not being invited back next year.

Afraid of annoying your family at Thanksgiving dinner?

This is a market on whether Liverpool will be the winner of their Matchday 9 match against Leicester City, scheduled for November 22nd, 2020. If Liverpool wins this match, the market will resolve to "Yes". If Liverpool draws or loses, the market will resolve to "No". If this match is postponed for whatever reason, this market will not resolve until it takes place. In the event this match is fully cancelled, the market will resolve to 50/50.

This is a market on whether Deiveson Figueiredo will win his UFC 255 fight against Alex Perez. If Dievson Figueiredo is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Alex Perez is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”.

This is a scalar market on the average sale price of the Air Jordan 1 Mocha Men’s Shoe on Christmas day, 2020. The lower bound for this market is $300 and upper bound is $500. This market will resolve based on the StockX page here: https://stockx.com/air-jordan-1-retro-high-dark-mocha. The average sale price will be calculated using the average of the sales from 12:00 PM EST on December 25th, 2020 till 8 PM EST on December 25th, 2020. The average sale price will be computed by taking the simple average (Sum of sale prices in all sizes divided by number of sales that took place within the time period) based on the sales occurring during the previously defined time window at the webpage listed above. All prices denominated in US Dollar.

As this is a Scalar market, you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the Jordan 1 Mocha's average price on that day. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Use this market to either gauge the future sale price of this item, or to speculate on its future price without having to buy the console(s) yourself and store them.

Sneaker Reseller?

Use this market to gauge whether it's cheaper to buy your loved one this coveted pair of Jordans now, or later, for the holidays.

Buying a Christmas present?

This is a market on whether Donald Trump pardon himself during his first term. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.

Predictit Description:
During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to himself for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions. Such pardon will be considered to have been granted only if Mr. Trump himself appears on the official list of presidential pardons granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”).

A self-pardon for Mr. Trump that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes. Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to such a pardon grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.

This is a market on whether the democratic or republican candidate will win the U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia taking place on January 5th, 2021. Currently, candidates for this election are David Perdue on the Republican ticket, and Jon Ossoff on the Democratic ticket. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6651/Which-party-wins-the-regularly-scheduled-2020-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.

Disclaimer: Likely candidates for each party are listed in the outcome names for clarity, however, if for whatever reason the candidates change, this market will be resolved based on the party the winning candidate associates with.

This is a market on which party will win the US Senate special election in Georgia, taking place on January 5th, 2021. Currently, the candidates for this election are Kelly Loeffler on the Republican ticket, and Raphael Warnock on the Democratic ticket. If either of these candidates are no longer running, the market will resolve based on which party wins, Republican (Loeffler) or Democratic (Warnock). The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6567/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-special-election-in-Georgia-in-2020 . This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.


Disclaimer: Likely candidates for each party are listed in the outcome names, however, if for whatever reason the candidates change, this market will be resolved based on the party the winning candidate associates with.


This is a market on if the Coinbase iOS app will reach #1 in the United States iPhone Apple App Store in the Finance category, under "Free Apps". It does not matter how long the app remains #1, if it does for any period of time, this market will resolve to “Yes.” If it does not reach #1 at any point before December 31st, 11:59pm EST 2020, this market will resolve to “No.” This market begins on November 25th, 2020 and will not consider anything prior. To find the Finance chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All", then tap "All Apps" in the top right corner and click "Finance", then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list pertinent to this market. The Coinbase iOS app can be found here: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/coinbase-buy-sell-bitcoin/id886427730 . In the case of any ambiguity in terms of the market resolution, it will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

The Coinbase app's ranking is a good proxy for retail interest in cryptocurrency. If it cracks #1, it implies increased demand and capital influx from retail, which means there may be a run up in price of both BTC and alts (sh*tcoins included).

Crypto HODLer?

This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match.

Note: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to "Chiefs vs Team 2", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret.

Note 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from "Yes | No" to "Chiefs | Bucs".

This is a market on whether Jake Paul will win his boxing match against Nate Robinson, set to take place on November 28th, 2020. If Jake Paul is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Nate Robinson is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled.

This is a market on whether Mike Tyson will win his boxing match against Roy Jones Jr., set to take place on November 28th, 2020. If Mike Tyson is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Roy Jones Jr. is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled.

This is a market on whether Donald J. Trump will join Parler prior to January 20th, 2021, at 12pm EST. The market will resolve to Yes if Donald Trump joins Parler (https://parler.com/) and has an official account, verified as him, with at least one post by the resolution date. It will resolve to "No" otherwise.

This is a scalar market on the average sale price (in USD) of the Sony PS5 PlayStation 5 (US Plug) Blu-Ray Edition Console 3005718 White on Christmas day, 2020. The lower bound for this market is $750 and upper bound is $1,250. This market will resolve based on the StockX page here: https://stockx.com/sony-ps5-playstation-5-blu-ray-edition-console-white. The average sale price will be calculated using the average of the sales from 12:00 PM EST on December 25th, 2020 till 8 PM EST on December 25th, 2020. The average sale price will be computed by taking the simple average (Sum of sale prices divided by number of sales that took place within the time period) based on the sales occurring during the previously defined time window at the webpage listed above. All prices denominated in US Dollar.

As this is a Scalar market, you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with the PS5's average price on that day. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

PS5 reseller?

Use this market to gauge whether it's cheaper to buy your loved one a PS5 now, or later, for the holidays.

This is a scalar market on what Anthony Fantano, aka theneedledrop, will rate Drake’s upcoming album, set to be titled “Certified Lover Boy”, in his Youtube review. The lower bound is 0 and the upper bound is 10. Ratings like “strong”, “light” and other similar words will be interpreted in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). For example, in the case of “a strong 6 to light 7”, the market would resolve to 7, while “a light to decent 6” would resolve to 6.25. A “Not Good” will resolve as 0. Market starts December 7th, 2020, and this market will be based on Drake's next album release after this date, even if it is not titled "Certified Lover Boy". In the unlikely event that theneedledrop does not rate Drake's upcoming album, this market will resolve to 5.

As this is a Scalar market, you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with theneedledrop rating. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on if Donald Trump will pardon Julian Assange prior to the end of his current presidential term (January 21st, 2021). In the event that Donald Trump does pardon Julian Assange, this will be recorded by the Department of Justice here: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-trump. If the pardon is issued after the specified date, January 21st, 2021, this market will resolve to “No.” This market specifically requires the Presidential pardon to be issued during Donald Trump’s current term in office. In the event of any ambiguity, this market will be resolved in good faith and as intended by the market’s integrity committee.

Clarification: If the pardon is not listed by the resolution source on the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No". "Secret pardons" which are not listed on the website by the resolution date will not satisfy the requirement to resolve to "Yes", nor will the resolution date be extended.


This is a market on if Playboi Carti will release a new studio album before the end of 2020. A studio album in this case can be defined as a new project on his Spotify page in the Albums section, with 8 or more songs and a release date in 2020. This market begins on December 14th 2020, thus any album released prior to this date does not count. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a studio album is released and is available via Spotify for streaming prior to 11:59PM EST on Dec 31, 2020. If a studio album is not officially released on Spotify by the aforementioned date, this market will resolve “No.” In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on if Donald Trump will pardon Ross Ulbricht prior to the end of his current presidential term (January 21st, 2021). In the event that Donald Trump does pardon Ross Ulbricht, this will be recorded by the Department of Justice here: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-trump. If the pardon is issued after the specified date, January 21st, 2021, this market will resolve to “No.” This market specifically requires the Presidential pardon to be issued during Donald Trump’s current term in office. In the event of any ambiguity, this market will be resolved in good faith and as intended by the market’s integrity committee.

Clarification: If the pardon is not listed by the resolution source on the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No". "Secret pardons" which are not listed on the website by the resolution date will not satisfy the requirement to resolve to "Yes", nor will the resolution date be extended.


This is a market on if Donald Trump will pardon Edward Snowden prior to the end of his current presidential term (January 21st, 2021). In the event that Donald Trump does pardon Edward Snowden, this will be recorded by the Department of Justice here: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-trump. If the pardon is issued after the specified date, January 21st, 2021, this market will resolve to “No.” This market specifically requires the Presidential pardon to be issued during Donald Trump’s current term in office. In the event of any ambiguity, this market will be resolved in good faith and as intended by the market integrity committee.

Clarification: If the pardon is not listed by the resolution source on the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No". "Secret pardons" which are not listed on the website by the resolution date will not satisfy the requirement to resolve to "Yes", nor will the resolution date be extended.


This market is on if any Electoral College Certificate of Vote will be the subject of formal objection when Congress meets in joint Session to count the electoral votes cast for President and Vice President in the 2020 election. A "formal objection" must be made in writing and be signed by at least one Senator and one member of the House of Representatives, per the provisions of 3 U.S.C. §15. Other public statements or efforts to challenge one or more Certificates of Votes that do not meet the provisions of 3 U.S.C. §15, shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7006/How-many-electoral-certificates-of-vote-will-be-formally-challenged-in-Congress. If the linked market resolves to “None”, this market will resolve to “No”. If, for any reason, the linked market resolves to anything other than “None” – specifically One, Two, Three, Four, Five, Six, or Seven or more – then this market will resolve to “Yes”. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved.

This is a market on which party will control the senate following the results of the 2020 election as well as runoffs and special elections. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source,  https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366. As stated at the link provided, “At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 31, 2021, the number of U.S. senators who were elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with, or who have publicly stated an intention to caucus with the party identified in the question, shall, if the vice president has the same party affiliation, be equal to or greater than half the number of voting members of the U.S. Senate, and if the vice president has a different party affiliation, be greater than half the number of voting members of the U.S. Senate.”

This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1,500 on January 27th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes" if ETH is trading above $1,500 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $25,000 at any point before March 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on December 16th, 2020. This market will resolve to “Yes" whenever BTC breaks $25,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by March 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a scalar market on what Coinbase’s market capitalization will be at market close, 1 week after the day it starts publicly trading (denominated in $USD and according to Google Finance). Coinbase is set to start trading soon, likely in Q1, 2021. The lower bound for this market is $15 billion, and the upper bound is $75 billion. You can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with Coinbase’s market cap. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the  event Coinbase doesn't start trading before Sept 1st 2021, this market will resolve at .50/.50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

For clarification on the date this market will end, if Coinbase begins trading on a Tuesday morning, the market will resolve according to market cap upon market close on Tuesday of the following week.

A strong performance in the public markets for Coinbase may further legitimize Bitcoin to the general public and lead to an influx of new institutional capital. Use this market to gauge the likelihood of that happening in the near future.

BTC Hodler?

Many people in the crypto industry got their start working at Coinbase, and thus have stock in the company. Use this market to gauge how much it may be worth soon, or to hedge against downside risk.

Coinbase early employee?

Coinbase's market cap in the public market could greatly affect the private fundraising market for earlier stage cryptocurrency companies. Use this market as an indicator for the future fundraising climate.

Crypto startup founder?

This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa.

The resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization.

Use this market to gauge the concurrent prospects of Bitcoin (and with it the greater cryptocurrency space) alongside Tesla's high growth prospects. 

Crypto or Tesla Investor?

This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.

Many assume that at 100 million vaccinations, the US will start looking more like it did pre-pandemic. Use this market to gauge how soon that will happen.

In the hospitality industry?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be suspended from the Twitter platform at any point prior to the resolution date, 12:00am EST on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be the current link to President Trump’s personal Twitter account, twitter.com/RealDonaldTrump. If the account is inaccessible and/or blocked by a message stating something to the effect of “account suspended” at any time prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If no such message is displayed and Trump’s account remains accessible at all times until the resolution date, not including Twitter service outages or account deletion, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and "No" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

 





This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve "Yes" if the aforementioned conditions are met and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).


Some Ye fans think his music just hasn't been the same since he got married to mega-celebrity Kim Kardashian. Maybe a divorce will lead to some new Kanye records filled with gems. On the other hand, the inverse may also be true. A saved relationship may bring out the best in Kanye as a husband, father, and artist going forward.

OG Kanye fan?

This is a market on if Coinbase will delist Ripple’s token, XRP, prior to the day they begin publicly trading. This market will resolve to “yes” if, before Coinbase stock begins trading, XRP has been delisted from Coinbase for US Users - meaning it can no longer be traded on either Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, for all Americans. This market will resolve to “no” if, for any reason, XRP is still available for trading to US Coinbase users on the day Coinbase begins publicly trading. The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase’s official webpage, which lists supported cryptocurrencies, https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/getting-started/general-crypto-education/supported-cryptocurrencies, and specifically pertains to the US category. Even if XRP is available for trading via Coinbase in a jurisdiction other than the United States, or mentioned on the website or app, if it is not available for trading in the US, this market will resolve to “yes”. The resolution date for this market will be 10:00am EST on the day Coinbase becomes publicly traded. If Coinbase stock does not begin publicly trading by September 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “no”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Coinbase's action in response to the SEC's suit against Ripple will set a precedent for how they react to regulatory action. Use this market to gauge Coinbase's regulatory stringency for listed assets upon being a publicly traded company.

Token project?

This is a market on if Joe Biden will be inaugurated as President of the United States of America on Inauguration Day—January 20th, 2021. At the time of market creation, AP, CNN, WSJ, Fox, and more have called the election for Joe Biden as the winner, and formally declared him the president-elect. Trump, however, has continued to contest the results legally and some have speculated that there may be other maneuvers by which someone other than Joe Biden would be inaugurated. This market will not resolve, under any circumstances, until the resolution date—January 20th, 2021. If Donald Trump, or anyone else other than Joe Biden, is inaugurated on that day as President of the USA, the market will resolve to “No”. If for any reason, no Presidential inauguration is held on that date, this market will resolve to “No”. If Joe Biden is inaugurated to the office of President of the United States on January 20th, 2021, this market will resolve to “yes”. The resolution source will be https://www.usa.gov/presidents#item-37462 and https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/, both official government sources.

There still remains a slim opportunity for Nancy Pelosi to be appointed to the Presidency through a series of Congressional disputes and maneuvers from Republicans.

Think Pelosi could become acting President?

Use this market to, in part, gauge the likelihood that Biden won't be capable of taking office for health reasons.

Concerned about Biden's health?

Use this market to gauge the possibility of Trump taking some other legal or military recourse to either postpone the inauguration of Joe Biden or to be inaugurated himself.

Think Trump will take some other action to remain in office?

This is a market on if Donald Trump will pardon an immediate family member prior to the end of his current presidential term (January 21st, 2021). In the event that Donald Trump does pardon an immediate family member, this will be recorded by the Department of Justice here: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-donald-trump. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, during his first term as President, Donald Trump pardons any of the following: Melania Trump, Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Tiffany Trump, and Jared Kushner. If none of the listed family members are pardoned by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No“. Any Trump family member not included in the above list will not be considered for this market. If any such pardon is issued after the specified date, January 21st, 2021, this market will resolve to “No.” This market specifically requires the Presidential pardon to be issued during Donald Trump’s current term in office. In the event of any ambiguity, this market will be resolved in good faith and as intended by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Clarification: If the pardon is not listed by the resolution source on the resolution date, the market will resolve to "No". "Secret pardons" which are not listed on the website by the resolution date will not satisfy the requirement to resolve to "Yes", nor will the resolution date be extended.


This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on which team will win the Jan 10th NFL Wild Card matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Baltimore Ravens. This game is set to take place on January 10th, 2021 at Nissan Stadium. This market will resolve according to whichever team wins, with winning outcome tokens being redeemable for $1 and losing outcome tokens being worth $0. In the event this match ends in a tie, post overtime, the market will resolve at 50/50, meaning Titans and Ravens shares will both be redeemable for $.50. If the game is postponed, the same rules will apply for whenever the match is played, until February 1st 2021, when it was resolve 50:50. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nfl.com/.

This is a market on if Donald Trump will complete his first four-year term as President of the United States without consideration for temporary incapacity. The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, 
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5158/Will-Donald-Trump-complete-his-first-term. If the source market resolves as Yes, this market will also resolve to Yes. If it resolves to No, this market will also resolve to No.

Use this market to gauge the likelihood that Trump will resign from the Presidency prior to the end of his first term.

Trump resignation?

This market also considers, in part, the likelihood that Trump will be formally impeached and removed from office following mass-protests and insurrection in Washington DC.

Impeachment?

This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)

This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be [forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/](http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/).

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, during Donald Trump's first term as president of the United States, the full U.S. House of Representatives shall, by simple majority vote, approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Trump at a date later than January 7th, 2021. Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to cause this market to resolve as “Yes“. This market will resolve to “No“ if, for any reason, articles of impeachment are not passed by the U.S. House of Representatives prior to the end of his first term.   In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be January 21, 2021.

The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7044/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term

This is a market on whether an official inauguration for the office of the President of the United States will take place on January 20th, 2021 outdoors at the western front of the U.S. Capitol facing the National Mall (the site used for all Inaugurations since Ronald Reagan's in 1981). Here is an image of the exact location in question: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/Inauguration-01-20-2009.jpg. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if an official inauguration (defined as an inauguration that results in the demonstrated powers of the US Presidency) is held on January 20th, 2021 in-person, outdoors at the western front of the U.S. Capitol facing the National Mall. If an inauguration happens indoors or at a different location, or no inauguration happens that day at all, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days.


This is a market on whether an official inauguration of Joe Biden as the President of the United States will take place on January 20th, 2021 outdoors at the western front of the U.S. Capitol facing the National Mall (the site used for all Inaugurations since Ronald Reagan's in 1981). Here is an image of the exact location in question: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/Inauguration-01-20-2009.jpg. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if an official inauguration (defined as an inauguration that results in the demonstrated powers of the US Presidency) is held on January 20th, 2021 in-person, outdoors at the western front of the U.S. Capitol facing the National Mall. If an inauguration happens indoors or at a different location, or no inauguration happens that day at all, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).



This is a market on if Donald Trump's Twitter account will be reinstated and active on the resolution date, 12:00am EST on March 1, 2021. The resolution source will be the link to President Trump’s personal Twitter account, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump. If the account is accessible and no longer blocked by a message stating something to the effect of “account suspended” upon the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If, upon the resolution date, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump says "account suspended" or something similar, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.

Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to "Yes".

This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before February 20, 2021 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before February 20, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on if Conor McGregor will win his UFC 257 fight against Dustin Poirier, set to take place on January 23, 2021. If Conor McGregor is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve to “Yes.” If Dustin Poirier is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If the UFC 257 fight is rescheduled to take place on a date other than January 23, 2021, the same rules will apply if the fight is rescheduled to any day before March 1, 2021. If the fight does not take place by March 1, 2021, this market will resolve as 50:50.

This is a market on which team will win the January 16th, 2021 matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Green Bay Packers. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nfl.com/.

This is a market on which team will win the January 17th, 2021 matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Browns and the New Orleans Saints. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nfl.com/.

This is a market on which team will win the January 17th, 2021 matchup between the Cleveland Browns and the Kansas City Chiefs. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nfl.com/.

This is a market on which team will win the January 16th, 2021 matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nfl.com/.

This is a market on if the total supply of $YFI, the native token of yearn.finance, will be greater than 30,000 by March 15th, 2021, 4pm EST. Currently there is much debate around adding inflation to the current fixed supply of 30,000 YFI tokens, as a means of creating further incentive for team members and core devs to be committed to the project. If this happens, and the total supply of YFI exceeds 30,000 before the resolution date, the market will resolve to "Yes". If the total supply of YFI remains 30,000 on the resolution date, even if a governance proposal set to change that has been approved, the market will resolve to "No". If the token gets redeployed and a migration happens, where there is social consensus on a new YFI token that governs yearn.finance, that will be treated as YFI. The main resolution sources will be Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance) and the current ERC20 contract (https://etherscan.io/token/0x0bc529c00c6401aef6d220be8c6ea1667f6ad93e).

This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Donald Trump Jr.'s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, January 25, 2021 at 3:00pm EST. 

At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @DonaldJTrumpJr, shall exceed 40,894 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @DonaldJTrumpJr, then clicking the verified account labeled "@DonaldJTrumpJr" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @DonaldJTrumpJr just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.

Neither Donald Trump Jr., nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "49 or less". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to "49 or less". The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @DonaldJTrumpJr will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.

Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.

In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. 

In response to trader inquiry: If it can be reasonably construed that the resolution source, the CDC, will publish corrected or otherwise revised COVID-19 case numbers, resolution of this market will consider only those revised numbers. In the event of an initial report which counts case numbers as lower than 50,000 but which is later revised (within 48 hours), only the revised numbers will be considered for the resolution of this market. The same applies if the initial case numbers are higher than 50,000 but are later revised (within 48 hours). Accordingly, resolution of this market may be delayed up to 48 hours if revised numbers are expected to be published. Only revisions of case numbers for dates posted by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST will be considered. If initial case numbers for March 14 are not posted prior to March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, those numbers will not be considered.


This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. 

If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

This is a market on which team will win the January 24th, 2021 NFC championship matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This game is set to take place on January 24th, 2021 at Lambeau Field. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is cancelled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nfl.com/.

This is a market on which team will win the January 24th, 2021 AFC championship matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. This game is set to take place on January 24th, 2021 at Arrowhead Stadium. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is cancelled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nfl.com/.

This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021.

Think DeFi is set for explosive growth but don't know how to capitalize on it? This market is for you.

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