Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Ukraine will not recapture any Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, as Institute for the Study of War maps show no Ukrainian ground advances there despite recent long-range strikes degrading Russian assets, including Bastion-M launchers, Iskander-M systems, and a power plant near Simferopol in the past week. Russian forces maintain entrenched positions in occupied Crimea, launching drone and missile barrages from sites like Hvardiiske while deepening integration through federal investments. Ukraine's frontline efforts remain focused on defensive operations in Donbas and limited Zaporizhzhia counterattacks, lacking air superiority, naval power, or manpower for an amphibious assault amid ongoing attrition. Odds could shift with unprecedented Western aid surges enabling breakthroughs or Russian command breakdowns, though such developments appear improbable in the three-month window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$51,659 交易量
$51,659 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$51,659 交易量
$51,659 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Ukraine will not recapture any Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, as Institute for the Study of War maps show no Ukrainian ground advances there despite recent long-range strikes degrading Russian assets, including Bastion-M launchers, Iskander-M systems, and a power plant near Simferopol in the past week. Russian forces maintain entrenched positions in occupied Crimea, launching drone and missile barrages from sites like Hvardiiske while deepening integration through federal investments. Ukraine's frontline efforts remain focused on defensive operations in Donbas and limited Zaporizhzhia counterattacks, lacking air superiority, naval power, or manpower for an amphibious assault amid ongoing attrition. Odds could shift with unprecedented Western aid surges enabling breakthroughs or Russian command breakdowns, though such developments appear improbable in the three-month window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$51,659结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Ukraine will not recapture any Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, as Institute for the Study of War maps show no Ukrainian ground advances there despite recent long-range strikes degrading Russian assets, including Bastion-M launchers, Iskander-M systems, and a power plant near Simferopol in the past week. Russian forces maintain entrenched positions in occupied Crimea, launching drone and missile barrages from sites like Hvardiiske while deepening integration through federal investments. Ukraine's frontline efforts remain focused on defensive operations in Donbas and limited Zaporizhzhia counterattacks, lacking air superiority, naval power, or manpower for an amphibious assault amid ongoing attrition. Odds could shift with unprecedented Western aid surges enabling breakthroughs or Russian command breakdowns, though such developments appear improbable in the three-month window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
交易量
$51,659结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Sep 23, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Ukraine will not recapture any Crimean territory by June 30, 2026, as Institute for the Study of War maps show no Ukrainian ground advances there despite recent long-range strikes degrading Russian assets, including Bastion-M launchers, Iskander-M systems, and a power plant near Simferopol in the past week. Russian forces maintain entrenched positions in occupied Crimea, launching drone and missile barrages from sites like Hvardiiske while deepening integration through federal investments. Ukraine's frontline efforts remain focused on defensive operations in Donbas and limited Zaporizhzhia counterattacks, lacking air superiority, naval power, or manpower for an amphibious assault amid ongoing attrition. Odds could shift with unprecedented Western aid surges enabling breakthroughs or Russian command breakdowns, though such developments appear improbable in the three-month window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题