Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against President-elect Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026, primarily due to the absence of any official statements, campaign hints, or transition team signals indicating such intent. Maxwell's 2022 conviction on sex-trafficking charges tied to Jeffrey Epstein carries a 20-year sentence, with her appeal ongoing but facing low success odds based on prior rulings. Trump's recent pardon discussions have centered on January 6 defendants and political allies, not Epstein-related cases from which he publicly distanced himself years ago. No post-election developments, including cabinet announcements or policy outlines, have shifted this sentiment, underscoring traders' view of negligible political upside for the pardon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$508,966 交易量
$508,966 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$508,966 交易量
$508,966 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ET
交易量
$508,966结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$508,966结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2025, 1:17 AM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against President-elect Trump issuing a pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026, primarily due to the absence of any official statements, campaign hints, or transition team signals indicating such intent. Maxwell's 2022 conviction on sex-trafficking charges tied to Jeffrey Epstein carries a 20-year sentence, with her appeal ongoing but facing low success odds based on prior rulings. Trump's recent pardon discussions have centered on January 6 defendants and political allies, not Epstein-related cases from which he publicly distanced himself years ago. No post-election developments, including cabinet announcements or policy outlines, have shifted this sentiment, underscoring traders' view of negligible political upside for the pardon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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