United States and Israel forces launched a major air campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with airstrikes targeting nuclear sites, missile production, leadership, and infrastructure, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent escalation includes Israel's March 27-28 strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities such as the Khondab heavy water reactor and facilities near Mashhad, coordinated with US Central Command operations degrading Iranian military capacity. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE. No other countries have conducted direct military action against Iran to date. Upcoming US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, postponed to April 6, represent a key catalyst that could broaden involvement before the market's April 30 resolution amid fragile diplomatic overtures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$444,363 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Saudi Arabia
28%
UAE
22%
Bahrain
8%
Kuwait
7%
Jordan
6%
Qatar
6%
Any E.U. Country
5%
Turkey
5%
France
4%
Oman
4%
UK
3%
Germany
3%
Canada
1%
$444,363 交易量
Saudi Arabia
$65,078 交易量
28%
UAE
$35,016 交易量
22%
Bahrain
$724 交易量
8%
Kuwait
$1,185 交易量
7%
Jordan
$915 交易量
6%
Qatar
$426 交易量
6%
Any E.U. Country
$5,048 交易量
5%
Turkey
$14,950 交易量
5%
France
$148,354 交易量
4%
Oman
$319 交易量
4%
UK
$96,791 交易量
3%
Germany
$75,558 交易量
3%
Canada
$0 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.United States and Israel forces launched a major air campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with airstrikes targeting nuclear sites, missile production, leadership, and infrastructure, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent escalation includes Israel's March 27-28 strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities such as the Khondab heavy water reactor and facilities near Mashhad, coordinated with US Central Command operations degrading Iranian military capacity. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE. No other countries have conducted direct military action against Iran to date. Upcoming US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, postponed to April 6, represent a key catalyst that could broaden involvement before the market's April 30 resolution amid fragile diplomatic overtures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
交易量
$444,363结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.United States and Israel forces launched a major air campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with airstrikes targeting nuclear sites, missile production, leadership, and infrastructure, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent escalation includes Israel's March 27-28 strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities such as the Khondab heavy water reactor and facilities near Mashhad, coordinated with US Central Command operations degrading Iranian military capacity. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE. No other countries have conducted direct military action against Iran to date. Upcoming US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, postponed to April 6, represent a key catalyst that could broaden involvement before the market's April 30 resolution amid fragile diplomatic overtures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$444,363结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...United States and Israel forces launched a major air campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, with airstrikes targeting nuclear sites, missile production, leadership, and infrastructure, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Recent escalation includes Israel's March 27-28 strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities such as the Khondab heavy water reactor and facilities near Mashhad, coordinated with US Central Command operations degrading Iranian military capacity. Iran has retaliated via missile and drone barrages on Israel, US bases, and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE. No other countries have conducted direct military action against Iran to date. Upcoming US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, postponed to April 6, represent a key catalyst that could broaden involvement before the market's April 30 resolution amid fragile diplomatic overtures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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