US and Israel continue leading airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and military infrastructure in the ongoing conflict that began February 28, with recent strikes on Esfahan's Mobarak Steel Factory on March 31 driving sustained trader focus on their dominant roles. President Trump stated March 31 that US operations could conclude in two to three weeks, even without a deal, amid de-escalation signals from Iranian President Pezeshkian conditional on no future aggression, though exchanges remain informal warnings rather than negotiations. UK, France, and Germany affirmed early March readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missiles, while Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia voice support but avoid direct involvement. Upcoming Trump national address and potential Strait of Hormuz security force decisions could tip escalation risks before April 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$594,654 交易量
2026-04-30
Saudi Arabia
15%
UAE
15%
Bahrain
6%
Turkey
4%
Qatar
4%
Jordan
4%
Kuwait
4%
Any E.U. Country
4%
Oman
4%
UK
3%
France
2%
Germany
1%
Canada
1%
$594,654 交易量
Saudi Arabia
$104,750 交易量
15%
UAE
$116,111 交易量
15%
Bahrain
$2,662 交易量
6%
Turkey
$16,756 交易量
4%
Qatar
$889 交易量
4%
Jordan
$1,128 交易量
4%
Kuwait
$2,158 交易量
4%
Any E.U. Country
$8,869 交易量
4%
Oman
$412 交易量
4%
UK
$108,575 交易量
3%
France
$150,653 交易量
2%
Germany
$81,624 交易量
1%
Canada
$2,271 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel continue leading airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and military infrastructure in the ongoing conflict that began February 28, with recent strikes on Esfahan's Mobarak Steel Factory on March 31 driving sustained trader focus on their dominant roles. President Trump stated March 31 that US operations could conclude in two to three weeks, even without a deal, amid de-escalation signals from Iranian President Pezeshkian conditional on no future aggression, though exchanges remain informal warnings rather than negotiations. UK, France, and Germany affirmed early March readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missiles, while Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia voice support but avoid direct involvement. Upcoming Trump national address and potential Strait of Hormuz security force decisions could tip escalation risks before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
交易量
$594,654结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel continue leading airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and military infrastructure in the ongoing conflict that began February 28, with recent strikes on Esfahan's Mobarak Steel Factory on March 31 driving sustained trader focus on their dominant roles. President Trump stated March 31 that US operations could conclude in two to three weeks, even without a deal, amid de-escalation signals from Iranian President Pezeshkian conditional on no future aggression, though exchanges remain informal warnings rather than negotiations. UK, France, and Germany affirmed early March readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missiles, while Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia voice support but avoid direct involvement. Upcoming Trump national address and potential Strait of Hormuz security force decisions could tip escalation risks before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$594,654结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel continue leading airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, missile facilities, and military infrastructure in the ongoing conflict that began February 28, with recent strikes on Esfahan's Mobarak Steel Factory on March 31 driving sustained trader focus on their dominant roles. President Trump stated March 31 that US operations could conclude in two to three weeks, even without a deal, amid de-escalation signals from Iranian President Pezeshkian conditional on no future aggression, though exchanges remain informal warnings rather than negotiations. UK, France, and Germany affirmed early March readiness for defensive actions to neutralize Iranian missiles, while Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia voice support but avoid direct involvement. Upcoming Trump national address and potential Strait of Hormuz security force decisions could tip escalation risks before April 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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