The United States has adhered to a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for warhead maintenance amid concerns over China's alleged covert activities and Russia's advancements. President Trump's administration signaled potential resumption in late 2025 rhetoric but has not announced preparations or lifted restrictions as of early April 2026, with technical reactivation requiring 6–24 months per expert assessments. The New START treaty's February 5 expiration has heightened arms race fears, yet no concrete U.S. test plans exist; traders weigh diplomatic pressures, congressional oversight, and NPT Review Conference (April–May 2026) as key factors that could influence future policy shifts without imminent execution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$610,219 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年3月31日
<1%
2026年6月30日
50%
September 30, 2026
50%
December 31, 2026
51%
$610,219 交易量
2026年3月31日
$316,123 交易量
<1%
2026年6月30日
$0 交易量
50%
September 30, 2026
$0 交易量
50%
December 31, 2026
$0 交易量
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has adhered to a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for warhead maintenance amid concerns over China's alleged covert activities and Russia's advancements. President Trump's administration signaled potential resumption in late 2025 rhetoric but has not announced preparations or lifted restrictions as of early April 2026, with technical reactivation requiring 6–24 months per expert assessments. The New START treaty's February 5 expiration has heightened arms race fears, yet no concrete U.S. test plans exist; traders weigh diplomatic pressures, congressional oversight, and NPT Review Conference (April–May 2026) as key factors that could influence future policy shifts without imminent execution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$610,219结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has adhered to a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for warhead maintenance amid concerns over China's alleged covert activities and Russia's advancements. President Trump's administration signaled potential resumption in late 2025 rhetoric but has not announced preparations or lifted restrictions as of early April 2026, with technical reactivation requiring 6–24 months per expert assessments. The New START treaty's February 5 expiration has heightened arms race fears, yet no concrete U.S. test plans exist; traders weigh diplomatic pressures, congressional oversight, and NPT Review Conference (April–May 2026) as key factors that could influence future policy shifts without imminent execution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$610,219结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has adhered to a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for warhead maintenance amid concerns over China's alleged covert activities and Russia's advancements. President Trump's administration signaled potential resumption in late 2025 rhetoric but has not announced preparations or lifted restrictions as of early April 2026, with technical reactivation requiring 6–24 months per expert assessments. The New START treaty's February 5 expiration has heightened arms race fears, yet no concrete U.S. test plans exist; traders weigh diplomatic pressures, congressional oversight, and NPT Review Conference (April–May 2026) as key factors that could influence future policy shifts without imminent execution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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