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选举·参议院初选

南达科他州共和党参议院初选获胜者

Market icon
选举·参议院初选

南达科他州共和党参议院初选获胜者

Mike Rounds 87%

Kristi Noem 5.2%

Justin McNeal 3.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Rounds 87%

Kristi Noem 5.2%

Justin McNeal 3.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Mike Rounds

$2,948 交易量

82%

Kristi Noem

$0 交易量

5%

Justin McNeal

$0 交易量

3%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Dakota. If no 2026 South Dakota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Senator Mike Rounds leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the South Dakota Republican Senate primary on June 2, driven by his January formal reelection announcement and strong incumbency advantage in the solidly red state's low-turnout primary, where establishment favorites historically prevail amid limited opposition fundraising and name recognition. Navy veteran Justin McNeal's March 15 campaign launch as a grassroots challenger emphasizing debt reduction and term limits has lifted his odds to 3.2%, reflecting modest early buzz but facing steep barriers against Rounds' entrenched support. Speculation around Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem challenging Rounds persists from February reports but remains at 5.5% without a formal entry, underscoring trader skepticism absent concrete moves before the filing deadline.

Incumbent Senator Mike Rounds leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the South Dakota Republican Senate primary on June 2, driven by his January formal reelection announcement and strong incumbency advantage in the solidly red state's low-turnout primary, where establishment favorites historically prevail amid limited opposition fundraising and name recognition. Navy veteran Justin McNeal's March 15 campaign launch as a grassroots challenger emphasizing debt reduction and term limits has lifted his odds to 3.2%, reflecting modest early buzz but facing steep barriers against Rounds' entrenched support. Speculation around Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem challenging Rounds persists from February reports but remains at 5.5% without a formal entry, underscoring trader skepticism absent concrete moves before the filing deadline.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Dakota. If no 2026 South Dakota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Dakota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Senator Mike Rounds leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the South Dakota Republican Senate primary on June 2, driven by his January formal reelection announcement and strong incumbency advantage in the solidly red state's low-turnout primary, where establishment favorites historically prevail amid limited opposition fundraising and name recognition. Navy veteran Justin McNeal's March 15 campaign launch as a grassroots challenger emphasizing debt reduction and term limits has lifted his odds to 3.2%, reflecting modest early buzz but facing steep barriers against Rounds' entrenched support. Speculation around Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem challenging Rounds persists from February reports but remains at 5.5% without a formal entry, underscoring trader skepticism absent concrete moves before the filing deadline.

Incumbent Senator Mike Rounds leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for the South Dakota Republican Senate primary on June 2, driven by his January formal reelection announcement and strong incumbency advantage in the solidly red state's low-turnout primary, where establishment favorites historically prevail amid limited opposition fundraising and name recognition. Navy veteran Justin McNeal's March 15 campaign launch as a grassroots challenger emphasizing debt reduction and term limits has lifted his odds to 3.2%, reflecting modest early buzz but facing steep barriers against Rounds' entrenched support. Speculation around Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem challenging Rounds persists from February reports but remains at 5.5% without a formal entry, underscoring trader skepticism absent concrete moves before the filing deadline.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"南达科他州共和党参议院初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 3 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Mike Rounds"，概率为 82%，其次是"Kristi Noem"，概率为 5%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 82¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 82%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"南达科他州共和党参议院初选获胜者"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Feb 25, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"南达科他州共和党参议院初选获胜者"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 3 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"南达科他州共和党参议院初选获胜者"的当前领先者是"Mike Rounds"，概率为 82%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 82%。紧随其后的结果是"Kristi Noem"，概率为 5%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"南达科他州共和党参议院初选获胜者"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。