Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 63% implied probability, driven by the AI leader's fresh closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation just two days ago—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—eliminating near-term public market pressure despite earlier March reports of Q4 preparations and a new investor relations hire. Portions of Amazon's commitment hinge on IPO or artificial general intelligence milestones, underscoring uncertainty, while sinking secondary market demand (institutional sellers finding no buyers for $600 million in shares) highlights skepticism over OpenAI's 28x projected 2026 revenue multiple, prolonged cash burn to 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google. Traders eye potential S-1 filings later in 2026 amid enterprise pivots, but structural shifts from nonprofit roots and regulatory scrutiny temper trillion-dollar cap bets below 10%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 63%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 9.0%
1.5万亿美元+ 7.6%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 5.5%
$1,550,752 交易量
$1,550,752 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
3%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
3%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
5%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
6%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
9%
1.5万亿美元+
8%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
63%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO） 63%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元 9.0%
1.5万亿美元+ 7.6%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元 5.5%
$1,550,752 交易量
$1,550,752 交易量
2026-06-30
<500B
$257,335 交易量
3%
5000亿美元–7500亿美元
$139,193 交易量
3%
7500亿美元–1万亿美元
$129,872 交易量
5%
1万亿美元–1.25万亿美元
$172,297 交易量
6%
1.25万亿美元–1.5万亿美元
$487,310 交易量
9%
1.5万亿美元+
$92,228 交易量
8%
截至 2026 年 12 月 31 日尚未进行首次公开发行（IPO）
$272,518 交易量
63%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 63% implied probability, driven by the AI leader's fresh closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation just two days ago—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—eliminating near-term public market pressure despite earlier March reports of Q4 preparations and a new investor relations hire. Portions of Amazon's commitment hinge on IPO or artificial general intelligence milestones, underscoring uncertainty, while sinking secondary market demand (institutional sellers finding no buyers for $600 million in shares) highlights skepticism over OpenAI's 28x projected 2026 revenue multiple, prolonged cash burn to 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google. Traders eye potential S-1 filings later in 2026 amid enterprise pivots, but structural shifts from nonprofit roots and regulatory scrutiny temper trillion-dollar cap bets below 10%.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
交易量
$1,550,752结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 63% implied probability, driven by the AI leader's fresh closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation just two days ago—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—eliminating near-term public market pressure despite earlier March reports of Q4 preparations and a new investor relations hire. Portions of Amazon's commitment hinge on IPO or artificial general intelligence milestones, underscoring uncertainty, while sinking secondary market demand (institutional sellers finding no buyers for $600 million in shares) highlights skepticism over OpenAI's 28x projected 2026 revenue multiple, prolonged cash burn to 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google. Traders eye potential S-1 filings later in 2026 amid enterprise pivots, but structural shifts from nonprofit roots and regulatory scrutiny temper trillion-dollar cap bets below 10%.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$1,550,752结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 63% implied probability, driven by the AI leader's fresh closure of a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation just two days ago—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—eliminating near-term public market pressure despite earlier March reports of Q4 preparations and a new investor relations hire. Portions of Amazon's commitment hinge on IPO or artificial general intelligence milestones, underscoring uncertainty, while sinking secondary market demand (institutional sellers finding no buyers for $600 million in shares) highlights skepticism over OpenAI's 28x projected 2026 revenue multiple, prolonged cash burn to 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google. Traders eye potential S-1 filings later in 2026 amid enterprise pivots, but structural shifts from nonprofit roots and regulatory scrutiny temper trillion-dollar cap bets below 10%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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