Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military capabilities and nuclear sites—initiated by Operation Roaring Lion on February 28 and continuing into their second month—Iranian leaders have repeatedly threatened major retaliatory strikes against Israel and US regional bases, including a promised "largest offensive in history" announced around March 1. President Trump recently extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic or face attacks on its power plants, while claiming progress in ceasefire diplomacy. Reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early strikes have fueled speculation of harder Iranian responses, though no verified direct military action by Iran against Israel has materialized in the past 30 days. Proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis sustain low-level attacks, with traders monitoring April 6 escalation risks and diplomatic signals before the market's April 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$153,087 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
98%
Kuwait
98%
UAE
93%
Iraq
85%
Qatar
52%
Oman
34%
Pakistan
32%
Syria
30%
Lebanon
26%
Azerbaijan
9%
Cyprus
7%
Turkey
7%
UK
6%
Yemen
5%
India
4%
Germany
4%
Poland
3%
Ukraine
3%
Italy
3%
Georgia
3%
Afghanistan
3%
France
2%
Spain
2%
Armenia
2%
Hungary
1%
$153,087 交易量
Bahrain
$8,667 交易量
98%
Kuwait
$2,724 交易量
98%
UAE
$2,620 交易量
93%
Iraq
$2,008 交易量
85%
Qatar
$2,949 交易量
52%
Oman
$3,287 交易量
34%
Pakistan
$0 交易量
32%
Syria
$283 交易量
30%
Lebanon
$1,276 交易量
26%
Azerbaijan
$673 交易量
9%
Cyprus
$263 交易量
7%
Turkey
$283 交易量
7%
UK
$2,237 交易量
6%
Yemen
$527 交易量
5%
India
$0 交易量
4%
Germany
$4,281 交易量
4%
Poland
$30,203 交易量
3%
Ukraine
$1,520 交易量
3%
Italy
$110 交易量
3%
Georgia
$867 交易量
3%
Afghanistan
$0 交易量
3%
France
$2,936 交易量
2%
Spain
$1,672 交易量
2%
Armenia
$655 交易量
2%
Hungary
$12,925 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military capabilities and nuclear sites—initiated by Operation Roaring Lion on February 28 and continuing into their second month—Iranian leaders have repeatedly threatened major retaliatory strikes against Israel and US regional bases, including a promised "largest offensive in history" announced around March 1. President Trump recently extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic or face attacks on its power plants, while claiming progress in ceasefire diplomacy. Reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early strikes have fueled speculation of harder Iranian responses, though no verified direct military action by Iran against Israel has materialized in the past 30 days. Proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis sustain low-level attacks, with traders monitoring April 6 escalation risks and diplomatic signals before the market's April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
交易量
$153,087结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military capabilities and nuclear sites—initiated by Operation Roaring Lion on February 28 and continuing into their second month—Iranian leaders have repeatedly threatened major retaliatory strikes against Israel and US regional bases, including a promised "largest offensive in history" announced around March 1. President Trump recently extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic or face attacks on its power plants, while claiming progress in ceasefire diplomacy. Reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early strikes have fueled speculation of harder Iranian responses, though no verified direct military action by Iran against Israel has materialized in the past 30 days. Proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis sustain low-level attacks, with traders monitoring April 6 escalation risks and diplomatic signals before the market's April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$153,087结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Amid ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military capabilities and nuclear sites—initiated by Operation Roaring Lion on February 28 and continuing into their second month—Iranian leaders have repeatedly threatened major retaliatory strikes against Israel and US regional bases, including a promised "largest offensive in history" announced around March 1. President Trump recently extended a deadline to April 6 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic or face attacks on its power plants, while claiming progress in ceasefire diplomacy. Reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death in early strikes have fueled speculation of harder Iranian responses, though no verified direct military action by Iran against Israel has materialized in the past 30 days. Proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis sustain low-level attacks, with traders monitoring April 6 escalation risks and diplomatic signals before the market's April 30 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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