Trader consensus favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 41% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season with over 250 preliminary reports through late March per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC)—January around 40, February 52 (44% above 1991–2020 average), and March exceeding 160 by mid-month amid multiple outbreaks including EF3 tornadoes in Michigan and Oklahoma. Lingering La Niña conditions transitioning to ENSO-neutral enhance severe weather potential across the Plains and Southeast, aligning with historical patterns where La Niña winters-spring correlate with elevated tornado activity. AccuWeather's forecast of 1,050–1,250 totals contextualizes the market, but the hot start positions higher bins ahead; confirmation rates (typically 65% of reports) and April–June peak season dynamics introduce uncertainty, with SPC outlooks providing key updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1250+ 41%
950–999 19.7%
<950 18%
1000–1049 14%
$13,509 交易量
$13,509 交易量
Jan 10, 2027
<950
18%
950–999
20%
1000–1049
14%
1050–1099
21%
1100–1149
17%
1150–1199
11%
1200–1249
11%
1250+
41%
1250+ 41%
950–999 19.7%
<950 18%
1000–1049 14%
$13,509 交易量
$13,509 交易量
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$0 交易量
18%
950–999
$0 交易量
20%
1000–1049
$0 交易量
14%
1050–1099
$0 交易量
21%
1100–1149
$0 交易量
17%
1150–1199
$0 交易量
11%
1200–1249
$13,509 交易量
11%
1250+
$0 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 41% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season with over 250 preliminary reports through late March per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC)—January around 40, February 52 (44% above 1991–2020 average), and March exceeding 160 by mid-month amid multiple outbreaks including EF3 tornadoes in Michigan and Oklahoma. Lingering La Niña conditions transitioning to ENSO-neutral enhance severe weather potential across the Plains and Southeast, aligning with historical patterns where La Niña winters-spring correlate with elevated tornado activity. AccuWeather's forecast of 1,050–1,250 totals contextualizes the market, but the hot start positions higher bins ahead; confirmation rates (typically 65% of reports) and April–June peak season dynamics introduce uncertainty, with SPC outlooks providing key updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$13,509结束日期
Jan 10, 2027市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 41% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season with over 250 preliminary reports through late March per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC)—January around 40, February 52 (44% above 1991–2020 average), and March exceeding 160 by mid-month amid multiple outbreaks including EF3 tornadoes in Michigan and Oklahoma. Lingering La Niña conditions transitioning to ENSO-neutral enhance severe weather potential across the Plains and Southeast, aligning with historical patterns where La Niña winters-spring correlate with elevated tornado activity. AccuWeather's forecast of 1,050–1,250 totals contextualizes the market, but the hot start positions higher bins ahead; confirmation rates (typically 65% of reports) and April–June peak season dynamics introduce uncertainty, with SPC outlooks providing key updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$13,509结束日期
Jan 10, 2027市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 at 41% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season with over 250 preliminary reports through late March per NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC)—January around 40, February 52 (44% above 1991–2020 average), and March exceeding 160 by mid-month amid multiple outbreaks including EF3 tornadoes in Michigan and Oklahoma. Lingering La Niña conditions transitioning to ENSO-neutral enhance severe weather potential across the Plains and Southeast, aligning with historical patterns where La Niña winters-spring correlate with elevated tornado activity. AccuWeather's forecast of 1,050–1,250 totals contextualizes the market, but the hot start positions higher bins ahead; confirmation rates (typically 65% of reports) and April–June peak season dynamics introduce uncertainty, with SPC outlooks providing key updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题