Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于4月1日惠灵顿的最高温度？
4月1日惠灵顿的最高温度？
17°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11℃ <1%
12°C <1%
$272,381 交易量
$272,381 交易量
2026-04-01
10°C或以下
否
11℃
否
12°C
否
13°C
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
是
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或更高
否
17°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11℃ <1%
12°C <1%
$272,381 交易量
$272,381 交易量
2026-04-01
10°C或以下
$12,301 交易量
否
11℃
$11,213 交易量
否
12°C
$16,753 交易量
否
13°C
$25,580 交易量
否
14°C
$21,351 交易量
否
15°C
$26,761 交易量
否
16°C
$62,103 交易量
否
17°C
$28,586 交易量
是
18°C
$22,575 交易量
否
19°C
$20,697 交易量
否
20°C或更高
$24,461 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
交易量
$272,381结束日期
2026-04-01市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$272,381结束日期
2026-04-01市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 2:18 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 17°C in Wellington on April 1, driven by official MetService midday observations and NIWA Wellington Airport data confirming daytime peaks at exactly 17°C under a dominant high-pressure ridge fostering clear skies, light northerlies, and a chilly morning start that limited further warming. Autumn climatology supports this, with April averages hovering around 17–18°C amid neutral ENSO conditions reducing extremes. Model ensembles from MetService aligned precisely with outcomes, showing no intensification potential. Realistic challenges—a rare late foehn wind surge or data revision from secondary stations—appear improbable as evening cools set in, with final NIWA daily summaries due post-midnight to seal resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题