The India Meteorological Department's latest forecast drives trader sentiment toward a 66.5% implied probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 23 at 31°C or below, with 28.5% odds on exactly 32°C, reflecting recent observations of daytime highs around 30-31°C amid persistent cloudy cover and cool northerly winds from western disturbances. Historical March maxima in Lucknow average 32-33°C, but current synoptic conditions—low humidity, moderate solar insolation, and stable atmospheric pressure—favor subdued heating, as corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on 30-32°C peaks. Recent data from March 21-22 stations confirm no heatwave precursors, positioning hotter outcomes as low-probability tails despite minor upside risk from clearing skies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
31°C or below 65%
32°C 28%
33°C 11%
34°C 5.6%
$127,431 交易量
$127,431 交易量
31°C or below
65%
32°C
28%
33°C
11%
34°C
6%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
31°C or below 65%
32°C 28%
33°C 11%
34°C 5.6%
$127,431 交易量
$127,431 交易量
31°C or below
65%
32°C
28%
33°C
11%
34°C
6%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The India Meteorological Department's latest forecast drives trader sentiment toward a 66.5% implied probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 23 at 31°C or below, with 28.5% odds on exactly 32°C, reflecting recent observations of daytime highs around 30-31°C amid persistent cloudy cover and cool northerly winds from western disturbances. Historical March maxima in Lucknow average 32-33°C, but current synoptic conditions—low humidity, moderate solar insolation, and stable atmospheric pressure—favor subdued heating, as corroborated by ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging on 30-32°C peaks. Recent data from March 21-22 stations confirm no heatwave precursors, positioning hotter outcomes as low-probability tails despite minor upside risk from clearing skies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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