Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 30°C or below in Lucknow on March 22 (49.5% implied probability), with 31°C close behind at 23%, reflecting the India Meteorological Department's latest forecasts projecting daytime highs around 29-31°C amid lingering cool northerly winds from recent western disturbances. These odds align with observed trends: Lucknow recorded 28.5°C max on March 20, below the seasonal March average of 32°C, as per IMD data, due to cloudy skies suppressing solar heating. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF show low confidence in exceeding 32°C, with minimal risk of heat spikes (under 2% for 35°C+), though diurnal variability and urban heat islands could nudge readings higher by 1-2°C. Key watch: March 21 observations and evening forecast updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
30°C or below 50%
31°C 22%
32°C 10%
34°C 4.3%
$18,057 交易量
$18,057 交易量
30°C or below
50%
31°C
22%
32°C
10%
33°C
7%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
30°C or below 50%
31°C 22%
32°C 10%
34°C 4.3%
$18,057 交易量
$18,057 交易量
30°C or below
50%
31°C
22%
32°C
10%
33°C
7%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a maximum temperature of 30°C or below in Lucknow on March 22 (49.5% implied probability), with 31°C close behind at 23%, reflecting the India Meteorological Department's latest forecasts projecting daytime highs around 29-31°C amid lingering cool northerly winds from recent western disturbances. These odds align with observed trends: Lucknow recorded 28.5°C max on March 20, below the seasonal March average of 32°C, as per IMD data, due to cloudy skies suppressing solar heating. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF show low confidence in exceeding 32°C, with minimal risk of heat spikes (under 2% for 35°C+), though diurnal variability and urban heat islands could nudge readings higher by 1-2°C. Key watch: March 21 observations and evening forecast updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题