Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time remains tightly contested, with 10-20 years edging out no prison time at roughly equal implied probabilities around 28%, reflecting deep uncertainty over his layered New York and California convictions amid aggressive appeals. The frontrunners capture traders' bets on a potential 16-year California rape sentence holding post-appeal—stacked against his delayed New York criminal sexual act conviction from June 2025, originally eyeing up to 25 years but stalled since a September postponement—versus full exoneration or compassionate release given his age (74) and recent Rikers Island complaints of failing health and inmate threats in a March 10 interview. Key differentiators include resolution of a mistrial third-degree rape charge via plea or third trial, California appeal outcomes, and upcoming sentencing hearings, all prone to #MeToo-era legal reversals as seen in his 2024 New York overturn.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
10-20年 27.7%
无监禁时间 27.5%
20-30年 21.5%
5-10年 6.7%
$682,150 交易量
$682,150 交易量
Dec 31, 2025
无监禁时间
27%
少于5年
7%
5-10年
7%
10-20年
28%
20-30年
22%
30年以上
5%
10-20年 27.7%
无监禁时间 27.5%
20-30年 21.5%
5-10年 6.7%
$682,150 交易量
$682,150 交易量
Dec 31, 2025
无监禁时间
$291,938 交易量
27%
少于5年
$48,797 交易量
7%
5-10年
$34,769 交易量
7%
10-20年
$120,954 交易量
28%
20-30年
$151,161 交易量
22%
30年以上
$34,530 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time remains tightly contested, with 10-20 years edging out no prison time at roughly equal implied probabilities around 28%, reflecting deep uncertainty over his layered New York and California convictions amid aggressive appeals. The frontrunners capture traders' bets on a potential 16-year California rape sentence holding post-appeal—stacked against his delayed New York criminal sexual act conviction from June 2025, originally eyeing up to 25 years but stalled since a September postponement—versus full exoneration or compassionate release given his age (74) and recent Rikers Island complaints of failing health and inmate threats in a March 10 interview. Key differentiators include resolution of a mistrial third-degree rape charge via plea or third trial, California appeal outcomes, and upcoming sentencing hearings, all prone to #MeToo-era legal reversals as seen in his 2024 New York overturn.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
交易量
$682,150结束日期
Dec 31, 2025市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time remains tightly contested, with 10-20 years edging out no prison time at roughly equal implied probabilities around 28%, reflecting deep uncertainty over his layered New York and California convictions amid aggressive appeals. The frontrunners capture traders' bets on a potential 16-year California rape sentence holding post-appeal—stacked against his delayed New York criminal sexual act conviction from June 2025, originally eyeing up to 25 years but stalled since a September postponement—versus full exoneration or compassionate release given his age (74) and recent Rikers Island complaints of failing health and inmate threats in a March 10 interview. Key differentiators include resolution of a mistrial third-degree rape charge via plea or third trial, California appeal outcomes, and upcoming sentencing hearings, all prone to #MeToo-era legal reversals as seen in his 2024 New York overturn.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$682,150结束日期
Dec 31, 2025市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time remains tightly contested, with 10-20 years edging out no prison time at roughly equal implied probabilities around 28%, reflecting deep uncertainty over his layered New York and California convictions amid aggressive appeals. The frontrunners capture traders' bets on a potential 16-year California rape sentence holding post-appeal—stacked against his delayed New York criminal sexual act conviction from June 2025, originally eyeing up to 25 years but stalled since a September postponement—versus full exoneration or compassionate release given his age (74) and recent Rikers Island complaints of failing health and inmate threats in a March 10 interview. Key differentiators include resolution of a mistrial third-degree rape charge via plea or third trial, California appeal outcomes, and upcoming sentencing hearings, all prone to #MeToo-era legal reversals as seen in his 2024 New York overturn.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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