Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.3% implied probability to no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled recapitalization efforts amid regulatory and political hurdles for the government-sponsored enterprise still in conservatorship since 2008. Recent FHFA directives and Treasury discussions under the Trump administration, including a January 2026 mortgage bond purchase program, have failed to materialize into concrete IPO timelines, with Q1 2026 passing without public offerings and shares plunging to multi-year lows in mid-March on mounting doubts. Analysts like those at Wedbush and Michael Burry cite 2027 as the earliest feasible window, given the need to retire $370 billion in senior preferred stock and build sufficient capital buffers. Scenarios challenging this positioning include an aggressive FHFA-Treasury maneuver forgiving Treasury claims or an executive order fast-tracking relisting, potentially unlocking valuations in the $150–300 billion market cap range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于到2026年6月30日前不进行IPO 91.3%
1,500–2,000亿美元 4.5%
低于1500亿 1.7%
200–250亿 1.4%
$186,541 交易量
$186,541 交易量
2026-06-30
低于1500亿
2%
1,500–2,000亿美元
5%
200–250亿
1%
2500–3000亿美元
1%
3000亿美元以上
1%
到2026年6月30日前不进行IPO
91%
到2026年6月30日前不进行IPO 91.3%
1,500–2,000亿美元 4.5%
低于1500亿 1.7%
200–250亿 1.4%
$186,541 交易量
$186,541 交易量
2026-06-30
低于1500亿
$79,006 交易量
2%
1,500–2,000亿美元
$30,009 交易量
5%
200–250亿
$18,820 交易量
1%
2500–3000亿美元
$4,761 交易量
1%
3000亿美元以上
$9,768 交易量
1%
到2026年6月30日前不进行IPO
$44,177 交易量
91%
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.3% implied probability to no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled recapitalization efforts amid regulatory and political hurdles for the government-sponsored enterprise still in conservatorship since 2008. Recent FHFA directives and Treasury discussions under the Trump administration, including a January 2026 mortgage bond purchase program, have failed to materialize into concrete IPO timelines, with Q1 2026 passing without public offerings and shares plunging to multi-year lows in mid-March on mounting doubts. Analysts like those at Wedbush and Michael Burry cite 2027 as the earliest feasible window, given the need to retire $370 billion in senior preferred stock and build sufficient capital buffers. Scenarios challenging this positioning include an aggressive FHFA-Treasury maneuver forgiving Treasury claims or an executive order fast-tracking relisting, potentially unlocking valuations in the $150–300 billion market cap range.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
交易量
$186,541结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.3% implied probability to no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled recapitalization efforts amid regulatory and political hurdles for the government-sponsored enterprise still in conservatorship since 2008. Recent FHFA directives and Treasury discussions under the Trump administration, including a January 2026 mortgage bond purchase program, have failed to materialize into concrete IPO timelines, with Q1 2026 passing without public offerings and shares plunging to multi-year lows in mid-March on mounting doubts. Analysts like those at Wedbush and Michael Burry cite 2027 as the earliest feasible window, given the need to retire $370 billion in senior preferred stock and build sufficient capital buffers. Scenarios challenging this positioning include an aggressive FHFA-Treasury maneuver forgiving Treasury claims or an executive order fast-tracking relisting, potentially unlocking valuations in the $150–300 billion market cap range.
This market will resolve based on Freddie Mac's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Freddie Mac’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$186,541结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.3% implied probability to no Freddie Mac IPO by June 30, 2026, reflecting stalled recapitalization efforts amid regulatory and political hurdles for the government-sponsored enterprise still in conservatorship since 2008. Recent FHFA directives and Treasury discussions under the Trump administration, including a January 2026 mortgage bond purchase program, have failed to materialize into concrete IPO timelines, with Q1 2026 passing without public offerings and shares plunging to multi-year lows in mid-March on mounting doubts. Analysts like those at Wedbush and Michael Burry cite 2027 as the earliest feasible window, given the need to retire $370 billion in senior preferred stock and build sufficient capital buffers. Scenarios challenging this positioning include an aggressive FHFA-Treasury maneuver forgiving Treasury claims or an executive order fast-tracking relisting, potentially unlocking valuations in the $150–300 billion market cap range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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